دانلود کتاب Policies to Support the Development of Indonesia’s Manufacturing Sector during 2020–2024: A Joint ADB–BAPPENAS Report

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Contents Tables, Figures, and Boxes Foreword Acknowledgments Contributors Abbreviations Overview Part I: Structural Transformation and the Relevance of the Manufacturing Sector Indonesia’s “New Growth Normal”: The Need to Transform the Economy during 2020–2024 Introduction The Need to Understand the Roles of Diversification, Sophistication, Complexity, and Structural Transformation Moderate Optimism for 2020–2024 Indonesia’s Potential and Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Rates: The Role of Manufacturing Introduction Indonesia’s Potential Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate The Components of the Potential Growth Rate A Shift and Share Analysis of the Change in Labor Productivity What Determines Indonesia’s Implied Labor Productivity Growth? Indonesia’s Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Rate The Determinants of Indonesia’sBalance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Rate Conclusions Appendix 2.1 Appendix 2.2 Appendix 2.3 Appendix 2.4 Appendix 2.5 Manufacturing as the Engine of Growth Introduction Understanding the Role of Manufacturingin Development: Two Important Questions Manufacturing as the Engine of Growth The Empirical Literature on the Engine of Growth Hypothesis The Recent Deindustrialization Debate Appendix 3.1 Appendix 3.2 A Historical Note on the Difficult Transformation of an Oil-Rich Economy Introduction Indonesia’s Economy since the Mid-1960s: A Quick Tour Indonesia’s Incipient Industrialization The Effects of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998 on Indonesia’s ManufacturingSector Part II: Indonesia’s Manufacturing Sector Indonesia’s Manufacturing: A Sectoral Overview Introduction Employment: Persons Engaged Value Added Labor Productivity Gross Exports Conclusions Appendix 5.1 Indonesia’s Manufacturing: A Firm-Level Perspective Introduction Firm-Size Distribution of the Manufacturing Sector Productivity, Wages, and Agglomeration in Manufacturing Conclusions Indonesia’s Reform Packages, Incentives to the Manufacturing Sector, and Industry 4.0 Introduction Reform Packages under the Jokowi Administration Review of the Existing Fiscal Incentives to Promote Manufacturing Manufacturing in the Age of Industry 4.0 Conclusions: An Assessment of Reforms, Incentives, and Industry 4.0 Appendix 7.1 Constraints to Firm Growth: Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing Firms Introduction Descriptive Evidence: Survey Data on Indonesian Firms Constraints to Growth of Indonesia’s Manufacturing Firms: An Empirical Assessment Conclusions Appendix 8.1 Developments in Indonesia’s Participation in Global Value Chains Introduction Indonesia’s Participation in Global Value Chains: An Aggregate View Sectoral Rates of Global Value Chain Participation Level of Global Value Chain Participation Indonesia’s Comparative Advantages in Global Value Chains Contributions to RegionalGlobal Value Chains Conclusions Appendix 9.1 Complexity, Global Value Chain Participation, and Upgrading in Indonesia Introduction The Resource-Based Nature of Indonesia’s Manufacturing Product Complexity of Indonesian Exports Product Complexity and Global Value Chains Pockets of High-Complexity Exports Indonesia’s Potential Exports Conclusions Appendix 10.1 Part III: Prospects for Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination to Support Growth and Industrialization in Indonesia How Can Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination Support Growth and Industrialization in Indonesia? Introduction Indonesia’s Sector Financial Balances Indonesia’s Domestic Private Sector Balance and the State of the Macroeconomy Flow-of-Funds-Based Interdependence of Monetary and Fiscal Policies Understanding Indonesia’s Macroeconomic Policy Mix Conclusions Appendix 11.1 Indonesia’s Nonfinancial Corporate Sector, Financial Fragility, and Macroeconomic Policy Consistent with Faster Growth Introduction Foreign-Currency-Denominated Liabilities for Indonesia’s Corporate Sector Corporate Sector Financial Positions and Interest Rate Sensitivity in Indonesia Conclusions Part IV: Growth during 2020–2024 and Recommendations to Transform Indonesia’s Economy How Fast Can Indonesia Realistically Grow during 2020–2024? Potential and Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Rate Scenarios Introduction Potential Gross Domestic Product Growth Scenarios for 2020–2024 Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Rate Scenarios Conclusions Modern Industrial Policy Introduction Modern Industrial Policy Recommendations to Transform Indonesia’s Economy during 2020–2024 Introduction Increase Potential and Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Rates Recommendations for the Manufacturing Sector Improve Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies to Support Higher Growth References