دانلود کتاب Prediction Markets: Fundamentals, Designs, and Applications

فهرست مطالب :

Cover......Page 1
Prediction Markets......Page 4
ISBN 9783834933584......Page 5
Preface......Page 6
Table of Contents......Page 8
List of Figures......Page 10
List of Abbreviations......Page 12
List of Tables......Page 14
1.1. Motivation......Page 16
1.2. Overview and Structure......Page 19
2.2. Definition......Page 21
2.3. Theoretical Foundations......Page 22
2.4. Operational Principle......Page 24
3.1. Contracts......Page 26
3.2. Trading Mechanisms......Page 29
3.3. Incentives......Page 38
3.3.1. Description of the Field Experiment on Monetary Incentives......Page 39
3.3.2. Trading Activity......Page 41
3.3.3. Trading Prices......Page 42
3.3.4. Predicting Accuracy......Page 44
3.3.5. Discussion of Results......Page 47
3.4. Traders......Page 50
3.4.1. Field Study on Traders’ Biases......Page 51
3.4.2. Traders’ Nationality and Shareholdings......Page 52
3.4.3. Traders’ Nationality and Trading Behavior......Page 54
3.4.4. Discussion of Results......Page 57
3.5. Trading Software......Page 58
3.5.1. User Interface......Page 59
3.5.2. Software Specification......Page 60
3.5.3. Hardware Specification......Page 61
3.5.4. General Requirements......Page 62
4.1.1. Short and Medium Term Forecasts......Page 63
4.1.2. Long Term Forecasts and Evaluation of Concepts......Page 69
4.2.1.1. The FIFA World Cup 2006......Page 76
4.2.1.2. The STOCCER Exchange......Page 78
4.2.1.3. Prediction Accuracy......Page 90
4.2.1.4. Arbitrage Opportunities......Page 101
4.2.1.5. Market-Making Traders......Page 102
4.2.2.1. Software Platform......Page 106
4.2.2.3. Fraud: The 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Elections......Page 108
4.2.2.4. Manipulation: The 2007 Federal Swiss Elections......Page 112
4.2.2.5. Absorption speed of Events: The Euro \'08......Page 115
4.2.3. AKX – The Australian Knowledge eXchange......Page 117
4.2.3.1. Water Availability in Australia......Page 118
4.2.3.2. Trading Platform......Page 119
4.2.3.3. Trading Activity and Prediction Accuracy......Page 123
4.2.3.4. Conclusion......Page 126
4.3.1. Service Innovation with Idea Markets......Page 127
4.3.1.1. Idea Market Concept......Page 128
4.3.2. Market and Opinion Research......Page 130
Combining prediction markets with established forecasting methods......Page 133
Information about the authors......Page 135
Appendix A......Page 138
Bibliography......Page 146