دانلود کتاب Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice

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Cover Half Title Series Page Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents Series Foreword Acknowledgements Disclosure Introduction 1 Key Issues in Risk Risk and Uncertainty Probability Measuring Probability The Principle of Indifference Types of Probability Relative Frequency Probability Knowledge-Based Probability Problems with Knowledge-Based Probability Applying Probability Descriptive and Inferential Statistics Conclusion 2 The Language of Risk Risk Assessment Risk Treatment Dose Response Risk Management Cautionary and Precautionary Principles Robustness and Resilience Risk and Protective Factors Conclusion 3 Current Practice in Risk: Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches Use of Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches in Practice Policing Sentencing and Conditional Release Risk Treatment The Case for Using Actuarial and Algorithmic RAIs Conclusion 4 Current Practice in Risk: Structured Clinical Judgement Approaches Use in Practice Policing Sentencing and Conditional Release Risk Treatment The Case for Using Checklist RAIs Conclusion 5 Critiques of Current Practice: Socio-Legal Perspectives Fairness Accuracy Individual and Group-Based Predictions Impact Conclusion 6 Critiques of Current Practice: Risk Analysis Perspectives Risk Management Risk Analysis Measuring Risk Simplified Qualitative Analysis Standard Qualitative and/or Quantitative Analysis Model-Based and Primarily Quantitative Methods Treating Risk as an Expected Value Criticisms of Using Relative Frequency Probability Criticisms of Using Knowledge-Based Probability Syntactic Criterion Pragmatic Criteria Calibration Treating Risk as a Product of History Standardisation and Consensus Using Models Conclusion 7 Critiques of Current Practice: Psychological Perspectives Unbounded Rationality Optimisation Under Constraints Cognitive Illusions Ecological Rationality Biases Associated with Cognitive Illusions Representativeness Availability Anchoring and Adjustment Affect Heuristics and Judgement Critiques of Cognitive Illusions Research Some Problems while Using Content-Blind Norms Studies of Heuristics Are Cognitive Illusions and Ecological Rationality Essentially Similar? The Adaptive Toolbox Conclusion 8 Dealing with Risk Better: Analysis and Treatment of Risks The Scale of the Problem Analysing Risks Barriers to Change Doing Better Risk Analysis: Planning Risk Analysis: Methods Cause and Effect Analysis (CEA) or Ishikawa Diagrams Structured What If Technique (SWIFT) Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Event Tree Analyses (ETA) Bayesian Networks Risk Analysis: Probabilistic Assessment Risk Evaluation Risk Treatment Risk Management Conclusion 9 Dealing with Risk Better: Probabilistic Risk Assessment Changing Practice How to Develop More Accurate Assessments The MacArthur Study Conclusion 10 Dealing with Risk Better: Changing the Environment Getting Rid of the ‘Cargo Cult’ Science Changing Environments to Make Better Decisions The Attractions of Simplicity Conclusion References Index