دانلود کتاب Apocalypse When? Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive

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0387098364......Page 1
Title Page ......Page 3
Copyright Page ......Page 4
Table of contents ......Page 5
Preface ......Page 9
Acknowledgments ......Page 12
Figures ......Page 13
Pictures ......Page 14
Tables ......Page 16
Algebraic symbols ......Page 17
Abbreviations and acronym ......Page 19
About the author ......Page 20
Introduction ......Page 21
1 Formulation ......Page 30
1.1 MULTIPLE HAZARD RATES ......Page 33
1.2 PROBABLITY THEORY: A QUICK REVIEW ......Page 37
1.3 CHANGING HAZARD RATES ......Page 39
1.4 POSTERIOR PROBABILITY ......Page 40
1.5 PRINCIPLE OF INDIFFERENCE ......Page 44
1.6 CUMULATIVE RISK ......Page 53
2.1 BAYES' THEORY ......Page 58
2.2 STATISTICS OF BUSINESS FIRMS ......Page 60
2.3 STATISTICS OF STAGE PRODUCTIONS ......Page 64
2.4 LONGEVITY RANK ......Page 71
2.5 UNIVARIATE SUMMARY ......Page 72
3.1 A PARADOX ......Page 75
3.2 FORMULATION ......Page 76
3.3 AN EXAMPLE ......Page 79
3.4 LOGIC DIAGRAM ......Page 82
3.5 FURTURE RESEARCH ......Page 83
4 Human survivability ......Page 85
4.1 FORMULATION ......Page 87
4.2 HAZARDOUS DEVELOPMENT ......Page 91
4.3 PREDICTOR FORMULATION ......Page 99
4.4 SURVIVABILITY OF CIVILIZATION ......Page 102
4.5 SURVIVABILITY OF THE HUMAN RACE ......Page 104
4.6 SUMMARY AND CURRENT HAZARD RATES ......Page 107
4.7 BIASES ......Page 109
5 Apocalypse how? ......Page 111
5.1 SCENARIOS FOR EXTINCTION ......Page 112
5.2 WILD CARDS ......Page 123
5.3 OVERRATED NATURAL HAZARDS ......Page 130
5.4 TRIAGE ......Page 132
5.5 REFLECTIONS ON THIS STUDY ......Page 134
5.6 PROSPECTS FOR A SAFER WORLD ......Page 135
5.7 SYSTEMIC STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES ......Page 138
5.8 SECOND CHANCE? ......Page 141
5.9 SURVIVAL HABITAT ......Page 143
Appendix A Survival formula derived from hazard rates ......Page 147
A.1 VARIABLE HAZARD RATE ......Page 149
A.2 UNKNOWN VULNERABILITY ......Page 150
Appendix B Posterior survivability ......Page 152
Appendix C Infinite mean duration ......Page 154
Appendix D Survival predictor from Bayes' theory ......Page 156
D.1 ADVANCE KNOWLEDGE ......Page 159
D.2 NONINFORMATIVE PRIOR PROBABILITY ......Page 162
Appendix E Stage productions running on specified dates ......Page 163
Appendix F Extinction rates of prehistoric taxa ......Page 175
Appendix G Disaggregated mortality ......Page 178
Appendix H Stage productions with dual cum-risks ......Page 181
Appendix I Overall plan for survivability calculation ......Page 201
Appendix J Multiple hazards ......Page 203
Appendix K Cum-risks for man-made hazards ......Page 206
Appendix L Statistical weights for types of hazards ......Page 210
Appendix M Extinction thwartered by civilization's collapse ......Page 212
Appendix N Initial hazard rates ......Page 215
References ......Page 217
Index ......Page 221