دانلود کتاب Competitiveness and Private Sec - OECD

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Foreword Acknowledgements Table of Contents Acronyms and abbreviations Executive summary Introduction Part I. Methodology Chapter 1. Approach and methodology The definition of competitiveness Competitiveness is related to productivity and to the maximisation of value-added Competitiveness evolves over time Figure 1.1. Ukraine needs to move from a factor-led economy to an efficiency-led economy Governments can adopt different tools to support competitiveness Foreign direct investment can contribute to productivity enhancement and competitiveness Identifying sectors for intervention Sector identification: The Sector Prioritisation Framework Figure 1.2. Sector Prioritisation Framework methodology Figure 1.3. Sector Prioritisation Framework, analysis for Ukraine Figure 1.4. Results of consultations with private and public sector representatives The Sector Performance Review: An in-depth analysis of the selected sectors Figure 1.5. Agribusiness example: Comparison of production costs for wheat (USD per metric tonne), 2009 Figure 1.6. Civilian aircraft industry example: Areas for potential FDI along the supply-chain Table 1.1. Sample size of the survey questionnaire Figure 1.7. Dairy sub-sector example: Difficult access to finance is partly due to the weak links between farmers and processors A prioritisation framework to select policy recommendations for the implementation phase Figure 1.8. A framework to prioritise among policy recommendations for Phase II based on the country’s strategic advantage and the areas of intervention Notes Bibliography Part II. Economic overview and findingsof the Investment Policy Reviewof Ukraine Chapter 2. Economic overview A country with abundant natural resources and a well qualified labour force Figure 2.1. Ukraine’s labour force has a high level of tertiary education Figure 2.2. Female labour participation in Ukraine is high compared to regional peers After struggling immediately following independence, the Ukrainian economy enjoyed a period of robust growth Figure 2.3. Annual inward FDI flows in the region The global financial crisis highlighted existing weaknesses Figure 2.4. FDI per capita in Ukraine is lower than in its regional peers Economic activity relied mainly on agriculture and highly energy intensive industries Figure 2.5. The share of services in GDP has expanded since independence Figure 2.6. The current account deficit has widened Figure 2.7. The evolution of real GDP has been closely linked with steel prices Structural reform priorities need to improve the business climate, consolidate the financial sector and deepen the labour force’s skill set A sector-specific approach to investment promotion Notes Bibliography Chapter 3. 2011 OECD Investment Policy Review of Ukraine – Key findings General investment policy recommendations include: Suggested measures to improve the investment climate: Part III. Sector-specific analysis Chapter 4. Agribusiness Summary Sector definition and segmentation Figure 4.1. The agribusiness supply-chain Global trends World demand growth will be driven by emerging economies Figure 4.2. Consumption of crop and livestock products to increase more rapidly in non-OECD countries World agricultural production growth should be driven by emerging economies as well Figure 4.3. Agricultural production growth over the last decade was driven by non-OECD countries Figure 4.4. Agricultural production in non-OECD countries to grow at a faster pace than OECD countries Emerging economies are beginning to resemble OECD countries in their food purchasing patterns Figure 4.5. Demand for high value added products in modern retail outlets grows as incomes rise Box 4.1. Defining “convergence” in food demand patterns Higher prices in real terms are expected, strongly influenced by dynamic global food demand Figure 4.6. Price changes for selected commodities in 2005-10 Figure 4.7. Most commodity prices in real terms to remain above the last decade’s level Increasing requirements for food safety and standards to access developed country markets Box 4.2. Food safety regulation in developed countries has implications for developing countries The role of foreign investors along the agribusiness value-chain Figure 4.8. FDI stock in agriculture is rising in CIS countries and South-East Europe but it is much smaller than in Latin America and Africa Ukraine agribusiness sector at a glance Agriculture plays a significant role in the economy Figure 4.9. Arable land in selected European countries, thousand square kilometres Figure 4.10. Production of agricultural commodities in Ukraine, millions of USD, 2008 Figure 4.11. Ukraine: Share of agriculture sector in GDP, 1999-2009 Figure 4.12. Export structure of Ukraine, 2008 Agriculture is still recovering from the transition years The food-processing industry is developing rapidly Agricultural productivity needs to be improved and stabilised Figure 4.13. Variation in production of selected commodities in Ukraine, 2006-09, index 100 = 2005 Dominance of household plots results in a lack of large-scale investment WTO membership provides an incentive to improve quality Box 4.3. Regulatory system of Ukraine Improvements are needed in the field of land ownership, quality standards, access to finance and human capital Public private consultations and dialogue could accelerate the reform process Why focus on the grain and dairy sub-sectors Demand and supply overview Figure 4.14. Domestic consumption status and outlook for key agricultural products Figure 4.15. Annual world imports of agricultural products, status in 2009 vs. outlook in 2020 Stakeholder consultations Table 4.1. How are domestic agro-climatic conditions favourable to more intensive crop growing? Bibliography Chapter 5. Focus on the grain value chain Summary Sub-sector definition and segmentation Table 5.1. World grain production and harvest area, 2009 Figure 5.1. Example of the wheat value chain Ukraine’s grain value chain is highly fragmented upstream Figure 5.2. Ukraine’s grain production has rebounded in recent years Figure 5.3. Ukraine’s production of wheat and coarse grains Figure 5.4. Ukraine is amongst the top exporters of wheat and coarse grains Global trends Grain consumption will grow steadily, driven by emerging economies Figure 5.5. Growth of world grain consumption is projected to be higher in non-OECD countries Figure 5.6. Africa, Middle-East and East Asia will drive the additional grain imports over the coming decade Ukraine has become an important wheat exporter, although quality remains an issue Box 5.1. Diversifying into high-quality grain: Australia’s best practice Prices in real terms are expected to be relatively high, turning food security into a major concern Sources of competitiveness Favourable natural endowment has driven a long tradition in grain production Box 5.2. Ukraine has favourable climatic conditions for grain growing Cost-competitiveness Figure 5.7. Grain production costs are competitive, while yield still offers opportunity to improve efficiency of production Table 5.2. Black Sea ports have a cost advantage for grain exports to middle-eastern countries Grain production could increase significantly over the coming years Figure 5.8. Ukraine could apply more fertiliser to increase yields The role of foreign investors in the grain value chain Lease or acquisition of farmland Grain marketing infrastructure Table 5.3. Foreign companies are sizeable grain exports Deep processing of grain Figure 5.9. Major importers of starch and gluten, millions of USD, 2007 Key issues and policy barriers Lack of access to finance results in low input use and insufficient capital investment Figure 5.10. Percentage of farmers having difficulty in obtaining credit Figure 5.11. Limited access to long-term loans results in very low use of agricultural machinery Non-completion of land reform and moratorium on land transactions Quality standards are still an important issue Box 5.3. Challenges faced by the current system of warehouse receipts for grain Transportation and storage infrastructures are still a bottleneck and increase costs Figure 5.12. Cargo handling volume is near to maximum capacity of Ukrainian ports State regulation of grain trade flows is detrimental to private investment Box 5.4. The 2010-11 grain export restrictions Support measures distort production and trade Policy recommendations Improving access to finance Completing the land reform Removing restrictions to grain trade Improving transport and storage infrastructure Notes Bibliography Chapter 6. Focus on the dairy value chain Summary Sub-sector definition and segmentation Figure 6.1. Cow’s milk dominates the global raw milk output Figure 6.2. The dairy value chain Global trends Increasing world consumption of dairy products with fastest pace in developing countries Figure 6.3. World consumption growth of dairy products driven by non-OECD countries Consumption of processed products in non-OECD countries will drive dairy sector growth Figure 6.4. World dairy production value and structure, recent trends and forecasts, 2005-19 Figure 6.5. Key importers of selected dairy products globally World dairy price trends should prompt a supply response from investors Sources of competitiveness A highly fragmented production segment which involves households and small farmers Figure 6.6. Annual dairy, food and meat price indices, 2002-04 = 100 Figure 6.7. Millions of cows producing milk in Ukraine, 1990-2006 Figure 6.8. Milk yield, tonnes of fluid milk per cow per year, 1990-2006 Cost-competitiveness of raw milk production Access to fast-growing markets, high domestic demand and advantageous geographic position Figure 6.9. Cost of milk production in selected countries, US dollars per 100 kg, 2007 Figure 6.10. Domestic demand for processed dairy products is expected to increase by 30% over the coming decade Figure 6.11. The Ukrainian dairy industry exports significant volumes of its production Figure 6.12. CIS countries and Middle-East already key importers of Ukrainian dairy products The role of foreign investors in the dairy sector Table 6.1. Turnover of the largest global dairy processing companies, 2009 Attraction of FDI into the dairy processing sector Key issues and policy barriers Shortages of human capital Figure 6.13. Workforce skills are seen as an area for improvement where government action is called on Outdated and excessive dairy safety regulation is ineffective and burdensome Figure 6.14. Quality of state controls and regulation are debated Milk quality standards: design and enforcement Box 6.1. Duplication of procedures and inefficiency in enforcing standards Fragmentation in raw milk production has a negative impact on quality, efficiency and productivity Table 6.2. Quality standards for raw cow milk for food production in Ukraine and the EU Figure 6.15. Milk yields in Ukraine’s large dairy farms are half of the European Union average Lack of financing affects the level of investments and therefore productivity Figure 6.16. Lack of financing affects the level of investments and therefore productivity Imperfect information and price heterogeneity affect farmers’ profitability Taxation of inputs via tariff and non-tariff import barriers Policy recommendations Human capacity building policies would have a positive impact on productivity Figure 6.17. A summary of policy options to enhance initial and VET education Figure 6.18. Extension programmes are an example of a policy option to develop producers’ skills Improving safety regulations and streamlining administrative controls Strengthening the role of producer co-operatives Improving access to credit Figure 6.19. Credit guarantee schemes are a way to foster access to finance for mid-size farmers Figure 6.20. Supply chain financing brings the financial means of large or foreign firms to small-scale producers Bibliography Chapter 7. Energy-efficiency and renewable technologies: Focus on production of energy based on biomass Summary Why focus on production of energy based on biomass The need for energy efficiency Traditional energy production, transmission and distribution activities are still dominated by state ownership Figure 7.1. Energy intensity, a cross country comparison Figure 7.2. Opportunities to reduce energy-intensity and to develop alternative sources of energy along the value chain Figure 7.3. Naftogaz (100% owned by the state) dominates the gas-value-chain in Ukraine Figure 7.4. State-owned Naftogaz dominates exploration and production, as well as the main oil pipelines Table 7.1. The distribution of Ukraine’s coal mines Figure 7.5. State and private ownership of power transmission and distribution assets until mid-2011 Alternative sources were selected with a focus on production of energy based on biomass Sector definition and segmentation Figure 7.6. Biomass residue supply chain for energy production Global trends Renewable sources of energy play an increasingly important role and biomass is amongst the most dynamic segments Table 7.2. Energy uses of biomass Figure 7.7. Structure of the global total primary energy supply, 2007 Figure 7.8. Structure of world renewable energy sources supply, 2007 Box 7.1. The case of biomass adoption in district heating in Sweden Proximity of resources and stability of supply are key to ensuring profitability of a biomass project Figure 7.9. Key success factors for a bio-energy project Sources of competitiveness Biomass resources are widely available in Ukraine Table 7.3. Straw, wood, husk and manure as primary biomass sources are promising in Ukraine Biomass residue use is cost competitive for production of heat and power Figure 7.10. Economic potential of biomass sources in 2008, breakdown by type of agricultural residue, millions of tonnes of coal equivalent Box 7.2. Assessing the biomass potential of a country: From “theoretical” to “economic” potential Figure 7.11. Production costs of heat by straw-based boilers are lower than by gas-fired boilers Figure 7.12. Operating costs and profits of a hot water boiler based on wood biomass for supply of a middle-size city, thousands EUR Figure 7.13. Net cash-flow plan in the five first years of the project, thousands EUR Increasing prices of natural gas in Ukraine should make biomass an even more attractive fuel to utilities Figure 7.14. Fuel used for power and heat production in Ukraine, 2006 Figure 7.15. Price of natural gas for utilities in Ukraine, past trends according to IMF requirements The role of foreign investors in the biomass value chain Figure 7.16. Potential opportunities for FDI along the value-chain Key issues and policy barriers Regulatory framework and administrative complexity limit access to utilities companies Box 7.3. Example of foreign direct investment by AlterEnergyGroup Company structure and activities Box 7.4. The application of feed-in tariff regulations Biomass sector is not promoted enough as an area for foreign investment Figure 7.17. Lack of public support and awareness for the biomass industry was pointed out Power and heat payment arrears Figure 7.18. Payment arrears also need to be solved to allow for investment Natural gas, heat and electrical power prices are still subsidised State ownership of power and heat production assets Policy recommendations Streamline administrative processes, including a single-window approach and pre-approval for green tariffs Align energy costs to market prices, as promised to the IMF Draft a national action plan for the production of energy from biomass, including demonstration projects and possible green tariffs for heating Figure 7.19. The quick adoption of biomass in Poland has made it a key element in the renewables landscape Increase privatisations of energy production and distribution assets to trigger private investment in infrastructures Box 7.5. The role of private and foreign investment in the Russian privatisation reforms Review of payment mechanisms and market regulation institutions Solve existing payment arrears Bibliography Chapter 8. Machinery and transport equipment: Focus on civilian aircraft manufacturing Summary Why focus on civilian aircraft manufacturing Figure 8.1. Four sub-sectors were identified on the basis of their share in the national domestic turnover Table 8.1. Aircraft industry was selected as it presents specific technology and capabilities in Ukraine and high government priority Sector definition and segmentation Definition Figure 8.2. The aircraft manufacturing industry ranges from components to after-sales services Figure 8.3. OEMs play a key role in designing, coordinating suppliers, and assembling the final product Segmentation Table 8.2. Segmentation of civilian aircrafts Table 8.3. Distribution of selected aircraft by segments Box 8.1. Three distinct duopolies Figure 8.4. Number of deliveries of regional turboprops, 2002-10 Figure 8.5. Number of deliveries of regional jets, 2002-10 Figure 8.6. Number of deliveries of large or very large aircraft, 2002-10 Global trends Demand forecasts over the coming two decades are promising on every segment Figure 8.7. Total expected demand for civilian aircraft by segment over 2011-30 Demand is shifting to the Asia Pacific region and will be geographically more diversified Figure 8.8. Asia Pacific and other emerging economies will drive the growth of demand for civilian aircraft Competition is expected to intensify as new players are entering the market Box 8.2. Demand dynamics for civilian aircraft Minimizing purchase price, operating costs and financial costs The supply chain is going global Figure 8.9. Example of Airbus A380 global supply-chain Aircraft purchases are still influenced by political and strategic factors Table 8.4. Active fleet by carrier, Airbus vs. Boeing Sources of competitiveness Long tradition and existing capabilities in design and manufacturing Table 8.5. Total accidents/Total aircraft production % of key aircraft competitors A favourable cost position The role of foreign investors in the civilian aircraft value chain Box 8.3. A world-class integrator strategy – Russia’s Sukhoi Superjet 100 Box 8.4. Focusing on low-end tier-2 and tier-3 components – Romania and EADS Key issues and policy barriers A small domestic market Table 8.6. Active fleet by country, selected countries Low market share and lagging MRO network are two mutually reinforcing issues Box 8.5. A close strategic and industrial relationship with Russia Closed governance, burdensome legal status and lack of risk-sharing partnerships with suppliers Box 8.6. Issues deriving from the legal status of Antonov – Public procurement and joint ventures Table 8.7. Investment in the Boeing 787 programme by Japanese risk-sharing partners Sustainability of skills in question Figure 8.10. Surveyed entrepreneurs assessed the skill gap in the aircraft segment Policy recommendations The governance of Antonov needs to be reformed and corporatisation promoted Need to improve the investment policy and promotion of the sector Box 8.7. Investment policy actions recommended for Ukraine Review trade policy Skills sustainability State support to the industry and its clients needs to be reviewed Box 8.8. Brazil – An array of educational, training and research institutions for competitiveness in aeronautics Bibliography Conclusion and roadmap for implementation phase A roadmap for creating a favourable business environment and attracting investment Economy-wide measures are the keystone of the reform agenda Targeted interventions are recommended to build long-term capabilities in promising sectors Figure 9.1. Selected areas of interventions in the Agribusiness sector Figure 9.2. Selected areas of interventions in the Energy production from alternative sources sector Bibliography