دانلود کتاب EXPERIMENTING ON A SMALL PLANET a history of scientific discoveries, a future of climate... change and global warming.

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Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 Leningrad—1982 1.2 ‘Global Warming’ or ‘Global Weirding’ 1.3 My Background 1.4 What Is Science? 1.5 The Observational Sciences 1.6 The Compexity of Nature 1.7 Summary 2 Discovering Climate 2.1 Defining ‘Climate’ 2.2 Numerical Descriptions of Climate 2.3 How Science Works 2.4 Summary 3 The Language of Science 3.1 Numbers and Symbols 3.2 Arithmetic, Algebra, Geometry, and Calculus 3.3 Shapes 3.4 Orders of Magnitude and Exponents 3.5 Logarithms 3.6 Logarithms and Scales with Bases Other Than 10 3.7 Earthquake Scales 3.8 The Beaufort Wind Force Scale 3.9 Extending the Beaufort Scale to Cyclonic Storms 3.10 Calendars and Time 3.11 Summary 4 Applying Mathematics to Problems 4.1 Measures and Weights 4.2 The Nautical Mile 4.3 The Metric System 4.4 Temperature 4.5 Precisely Defining Some Words You Already Know 4.6 Locating Things 4.7 Latitude and Longitude 4.8 Map Projections 4.9 Trigonometry 4.10 Circles, Ellipses, and Angular Velocity 4.11 Centripetal and Centrifugal Forces 4.12 Graphs 4.13 Exponential Growth and Decay 4.14 The Logistic Equation 4.15 Statistics 4.16 Summary 5 Geologic Time Abstract 5.1 Age of the Earth—4004 BCE, or Older? 5.2 The Discovery of the Depths of Time—Eternity 5.3 Geologic Time Punctuated by Revolutions 5.4 Catastrophism Replaced by Imperceptibly Slow Gradual Change 5.5 The Development of the Geological Timescale 5.6 The Discovery of the Ice Age 5.7 The Discovery of Past Warm Polar Regions 5.8 Throwing a Monkey Wrench into Explaining Climate Change 5.9 Crustal Mobility’ to the Rescue 5.10 The Return of Catastrophism and the Idea of Rapid Change 5.11 The Nature of the Geologic Record 5.12 The Great Extinctions and Their Causes 5.13 Summary—A History with No Dates 6 Putting Numbers on Geologic Ages 6.1 1788—An Abyss of Time of Unknown Dimensions 6.2 1863—Physics Comes to the Rescue—Earth Is Not More than 100 Million Years Old 6.3 What We Now Know About Heat from Earth’s Interior 6.4 Some Helpful Background in Understanding Nineteenth-Century Chemistry 6.5 Atomic Weight, Atomic Mass, Isotopes, Relative Atomic Mass, Standard Atomic Weight—A Confusing Plethora of Terms 6.6 1895–1913—The Worlds of Physics and Chemistry Turned Upside Down 6.7 Henri Becquerel and the Curies 6.8 Nonconformists and the British Universities Open to All 6.9 The Discovery of Electrons, Alpha-Rays, and Beta-Rays 6.10 The Discovery of Radioactive Decay Series, Exponential Decay Rates, and Secular Equilibrium 6.11 The Mystery of the Decay Series Explained by Isotopes 6.12 The Discovery That Radioactive Decay Series Might Be Used to Determine the Age of Rocks 6.13 The Discovery of Stable Isotopes 6.14 Rethinking the Structure of the Atom 6.15 From Science to Science Fiction 6.16 The Discovery of Protons and Neutrons 6.17 Arthur Holmes and the Age of the Earth 6.18 The Development of a Numerical Geological Timescale 6.19 Summary 7 Documenting Past Climate Change 7.1 What Is ‘Climate’? 7.2 A Brief Overview of Earth’s Climate History 7.3 The Cenozoic Climate ‘Deterioration’ 7.4 From Ages to Process Rates 7.5 Radiometric Age Dating in the Mid-Twentieth Century 7.6 Potassium—Argon Dating 7.7 Reversals of Earth’s Magnetic Field 7.8 Fission Track Dating 7.9 Astronomical Dating 7.10 Tritium, Carbon-14, and Beryllium-10 7.11 The Human Acceleration of Natural Process Rates 7.12 The Present Climate in Its Geologic Context 7.13 Steady State Versus Non-steady State 7.14 Feedbacks 7.15 Summary 8 The Nature of Energy Received from the Sun—The Analogies with Water Waves and Sound 8.1 Water Waves 8.2 Special Water Waves—Tides and Tsunamis 8.3 Wave Energy, Refraction, and Reflection 8.4 Sound Waves 8.5 Sound Waves and Music 8.6 Measuring the Speed of Sound in Air 8.7 Measuring the Speed of Sound in Water 8.8 The Practical Use of Sound in Water 8.9 Summary 9 The Nature of Energy Received from the Sun—Figuring Out What Light Really Is 9.1 Early Ideas About Light 9.2 Refraction of Light 9.3 Measuring the Speed of Light 9.4 The Discovery of Double Refraction or ‘Birefringence’ 9.5 Investigating the Dispersion of Light 9.6 Figuring Out the Wavelengths of Different Colors of Light 9.7 Diffraction 9.8 Polarization of Light 9.9 Eureka!—Light Is Electromagnetic Waves 9.10 A Review of the Discovery of the Invisible Parts of the Electromagnetic Spectrum 9.11 The Demise of the ‘Luminiferous Æther’ 9.12 Summary 10 Exploring the Electromagnetic Spectrum 10.1 Spectra and Spectral Lines 10.2 The Discovery of Helium—First in the Sun, Then on Earth 10.3 The Discovery That Spectral Lines Are Mathematically Related 10.4 Heinrich Hertz’s Confirmation of Maxwell’s Ideas 10.5 Marconi Makes the Electromagnetic Spectrum a Tool for Civilization 10.6 Human Use of the Electromagnetic Spectrum for Communication, Locating Objects, and Cooking 10.7 Summary 11 The Origins of Climate Science—The Idea of Energy Balance 11.1 What Is Heat? 11.2 Thermodynamics 11.3 The Laws of Thermodynamics 11.4 The Discovery of Greenhouse Gases 11.5 Kirchhoff’s ‘Black Body’ 11.6 Stefan’s Fourth Power Law 11.7 Black Body Radiation 11.8 Summary 12 The Climate System 12.1 Insolation—The Incoming Energy from the Sun 12.2 Albedo—The Reflection of Incoming Energy Back into Space 12.3 Reradiation—How the Earth Radiates Energy Back into Space 12.4 The Chaotic Nature of the Weather 12.5 The Earthly Components of the Climate System: Air, Earth, Ice, and Water 12.6 The Atmosphere 12.7 The Hydrosphere 12.8 The Cryosphere 12.9 The Land 12.10 Classifying Climatic Regions 12.11 Uncertainties in the Climate Scheme 12.12 Summary 13 What Is at the Bottom of Alice’s Rabbit Hole? 13.1 Max Planck and the Solution to the Black Body Problem 13.2 The Photoelectric Effect 13.3 The Bohr Atom 13.4 Implications of the Bohr Model for the Periodic Table of the Elements 13.5 The Zeeman Effect 13.6 Trying to Make Sense of the Periodic Table 13.7 The Second Quantum Revolution 13.8 The Discovery of Nuclear Fission 13.9 Molecular Motions 13.10 Summary 14 Energy from the Sun—Long-Term Variations 14.1 The Faint Young Sun Paradox 14.2 The Energy Flux from the Sun 14.3 The Orbital Cycles 14.4 The Rise and Fall of the Orbital Theory of Climate Change 14.5 The Resurrection of the Orbital Theory 14.6 Correcting the Age Scale: Filling in the Details to Prove the Theory 14.7 The Discovery that Milankovitch Orbital Cycles Have Affected Much of Earth History 14.8 Summary 15 Solar Variability and Cosmic Rays 15.1 Solar Variability 15.2 The Solar Wind 15.3 Solar Storms and Space Weather 15.4 The Solar Neutrino Problem 15.5 The Ultraviolet Radiation 15.6 Cosmic Rays 15.7 A Digression into the World of Particle Physics 15.8 How Cosmic Rays Interact with Earth’s Atmosphere 15.9 Carbon-14 15.10 Beryllium-10 15.11 Cosmic Rays and Climate 15.12 Summary 16 Albedo 16.1 Albedo of Planet Earth 16.2 Clouds 16.3 Could Cloudiness Be a Global Thermostat? 16.4 Volcanic Ash and Climate Change 16.5 Aerosols 16.6 Albedo During the Last Glacial Maximum 16.7 Changing the Planetary Albedo to Counteract Greenhouse Warming 16.8 Summary 17 Air 17.1 The Nature of Air 17.2 The Velocity of Air Molecules 17.3 Other Molecular Motions 17.4 The Other Major Component of Air—Photons 17.5 Ionization 17.6 The Scattering of Light 17.7 Absorption of the Infrared Wavelengths 17.8 Other Components of Air: Subatomic Particles 17.9 Summary 18 HoH—The Keystone of Earth’s Climate 18.1 Some History 18.2 Why Is HOH So Strange? 18.3 The Hydrologic Cycle 18.4 Vapor 18.4.1 Pure Water 18.5 Natural Water 18.6 Water—Density and Specific Volume 18.7 Water—Surface Tension 18.8 Ice 18.9 Earth’s Ice 18.10 How Ice Forms from Freshwater and from Seawater 18.11 Snow and ICE on Land 18.12 Ice Cores 18.13 Ice as Earth’s Climate Stabilizer 19 The Atmosphere 19.1 Atmospheric Pressure 19.2 The Structure of the Atmosphere 19.3 The Troposphere 19.4 The Stratosphere 19.5 The Mesosphere 19.6 The Thermosphere 19.7 The Exosphere 19.8 The Magnetosphere 19.9 The Ionosphere 19.10 The Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect 19.11 The Distribution of Gases in the Atmosphere 19.12 The Overall Effect of the Atmosphere on Solar Irradiance 19.13 The Effects of Anthropogenic Atmospheric Pollution 19.14 Summary 20 Oxygen and Ozone—Products and Protectors of Life 20.1 Diatomic Oxygen—O2—‘Oxygen’ 20.2 Triatomic Oxygen—O3—Ozone 20.3 The Oxygen–Ozone–Ultraviolet Connection 20.4 The Oxygen–Ozone–Ultraviolet Conundrum 20.5 The Human Interference with Ozone 20.6 Ozone—The Greenhouse Gas 20.7 Summary 21 Water Vapor—The Major Greenhouse Gas 21.1 H2O (‘Water’) on Earth 21.2 The Behavior of Dry Air 21.3 The Behavior of Wet Air 21.4 What Controls Atmospheric Water Vapor? 21.5 Anthropogenic Effects 21.6 The Changing Area of Exposed Water Surface 21.7 Summary 22 Carbon Dioxide 22.1 Carbon Dioxide as a Greenhouse Gas 22.2 The Carbon Cycle 22.3 The Very Long-Term Carbon Cycle 22.4 Carbon Dioxide During the Phanerozoic 22.5 Rethinking the Role of co2 in Climate Change 22.6 The Ice Core Record of the Last Half Million Years 22.7 The Industrial Era Increase in Atmospheric co2 22.8 The Short-Term Sinks for Atmospheric co2 22.9 Carbon Dioxide Catastrophes 22.10 Projections of Future Atmospheric co2 Levels 22.11 Summary 23 Other Greenhouse Gases 23.1 Methane—CH4 23.2 The History of Methane in Earth’s Atmosphere 23.3 Methane Clathrates 23.4 Methane Trapped in Permafrost 23.5 Nitrous Oxide—N2O 23.6 Other Greenhouse Gasses 23.7 Summary 24 The Earth is a Sphere and Rotates 24.1 The Egyptian View of the Earth 24.2 The Babylonian Universe 24.3 The Hebrew Earth 24.4 The Chinese View 24.5 From a Flat to a Spherical Earth 24.6 The Sun Does Not Orbit the Earth, but the Earth Rotates 24.7 Robert Hooke (1635–1703) 24.8 Isaac Newton (1642–1727) 24.9 Is the Earth Hollow or Solid? 24.10 Determining the Density of the Earth and the Value of ‘g’, Newton’s Gravitational Constant 24.11 Explaining the Trade Winds—Halley and Hadley’s Ideas 1686–1735 24.12 Back to Proving that Earth Rotates 1791─1831 24.13 The Earth is not Really a Sphere 24.14 The Flat Earther’s Still Survive 24.15 Summary 25 The Coriolis Effect 25.1 The Ideas of Gaspard-Gustave de Coriolis 1792─1835 25.2 The Foucault Pendulum 1851 25.3 The Earth is Neither a Disk Nor a Sphere 25.4 Inertial Circles 25.5 William Ferrel Figures It Out 1817–1891 25.6 Buys-Ballot’s Discovery 1857 25.7 Flow Down a Pressure Gradient 25.8 Introduction to the Use of ‘Coriolis’ in Meteorology 25.9 A Mathematical Derivation of the Coriolis Force 25.10 Summary 26 The Circulation of Earth’s Atmosphere 26.1 Earth’s Fluid Systems 26.2 The Geographically Uneven Radiation Balance 26.3 The ‘Modern’ Atmospheric Circulation 26.4 The Indian and Southeast Asian Monsoons 26.5 Cyclonic Storms 26.6 Tornados 26.7 Summary 27 The Circulation of Earth’s Oceans 27.1 The Modern Ocean’s General Circulation 27.2 The Global Ocean’s Great Conveyor 27.3 Upwelling of Waters from the Ocean’s Interior to the Surface 27.4 El Niño–La Niña, the Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation 27.5 Kelvin Waves 27.6 A New Hypothesis: Very Different Atmospheric and Ocean Circulations on the Warm Earth of the Distant Past 27.7 The Transition from the ‘Warm Earth’ to the ‘Modern’ Circulation 27.8 Summary 28 The Biological Interactions 28.1 Life on Land 28.2 C3 and C4 Plants 28.3 Response of Land Plants to Higher Levels of CO2 28.4 Response of Land-Based Life to Past Climate Change 28.5 Response of Land Life to Future Climate Change 28.6 Life in the Ocean and Seas 28.7 Life in the Open Ocean 28.8 Life Along Coasts and in Shallow Seas 28.9 Marine Life and the CO2 Connection 28.10 The Role of Plants and Animals in Fixing CaCO3 28.11 How Do Organic Matter and CaCO3 Get to the Sea Floor? 28.12 The Acidification of the Ocean 28.13 What Are the Effects of Acidification on Marine Animals and Plants? 28.14 Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation, Nutrients and the Carbon Cycle in Other Climate States 28.15 Summary 29 Sea Level 29.1 What is Sea Level? 29.2 Why Does Sea-Level Change Differently in Different Places? 29.3 Changing the Volume of Water in the Ocean 29.4 Changing the Mass of H2O in the Ocean 29.5 Changes in Groundwater Reservoirs 29.6 Conversion of Ice to Ocean Water 29.7 Storage in Lakes 29.8 Effect of Changing the Salinity of the Ocean 29.9 Effect of Warming or Cooling the Ocean 29.10 Motion of the Earth’s Solid Surface 29.11 The Gravitational Attraction of Ice Sheets 29.12 Changing the Speed of Earth’s Rotation 29.13 Effect of Winds and Atmospheric Pressure Systems 29.14 Effect of the Evaporation–Precipitation Balance 29.15 Sea-Level Change During the Deglaciation 29.16 Sea Level During the Holocene 29.17 What Has Happened to Sea Level in the Past Few Centuries? 29.18 The Global Sea-Level Record 29.19 Summary 30 Global Climate Change—The Geologically Immediate Past 30.1 The Climate Changes During the Last Deglaciation 30.2 The Sudden Changes Recorded in Ice Cores: Dansgaard–Oeschger Events 30.3 The Record of Massive Iceberg Discharges in North Atlantic Deep-Sea and Greenland Ice Cores: The Heinrich Events 30.4 What Did the Deglaciation Look like Outside the North Atlantic Region? 30.5 Are There Holocene Climate Cycles? 30.6 The Hockey Stick Controversy 30.7 Summary 31 Human Impacts on the Environment and Climate 31.1 Factors Controlling Earth’s Surface Temperature 31.2 Early Humans as Nomadic ‘Hunter/Gatherers’ 31.3 Humans Become Sedentary 31.4 Extinctions Due to Humans 31.5 Human Effects on Swamps, Marshes, and Coastal Wetlands 31.6 Early Human Changes in Rivers 31.7 The Growth of Urbanization 31.8 Advances in Hygene to Improve Human Life 31.9 Later Changes in Climate in Europe 31.10 Cultural Effects of the ‘Little Ice Age’ 31.11 The Discovery of the New World: Introduction of New Diseases to the Americas and New Foods to Europe 31.12 The Discovery of the Real Causes of the Diseases 31.13 The Industrial Revolution 31.14 Advances in Medicine Expand Human Longevity 31.15 World War I and the ‘Spanish Flu’ 31.16 The End of Smallpox 31.17 Effects of Recent Damming of Large Rivers in Desert Areas 31.18 Urban Areas as Heat Islands 31.19 Climatic Effects Related to the Development of the Automobile 31.20 Climate Changes Related to Agricultural Practices 31.21 Human Longevity and Population Growth 31.22 The Great Chinese Famine of 1959–1961 and Its Ultimate Result 31.23 The Mid-Twentieth-Century Temperature Plateau 31.24 The Escalating Emergence of the Coronaviruses and Their Relation to Climate Change 31.25 Atmospheric Pollution Reductions in Response to the COVID-19 PANDEMIC 31.26 Summary 32 Predictions of the Future of Humanity 32.1 Predictions of the Future—Models 32.2 What is Expected in the Twenty-First Century—Human Population 32.3 Environmental Variability and Tipping Points 32.4 The Anthropogenic Factors Causing the Earth’s Climate and Environment to Change 32.5 The Reports of the Club of Rome 32.6 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—The ‘official’ Scenarios for Future Increases in Greenhouse Gas Concentrations 32.7 Comparison of Climate Models Based on SRES and RCP Scenarios 32.8 The Kyoto Protocol 32.9 The 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change 32.10 Some Problems with Predicting the Future 32.11 Summary 33 Is There an Analog for the Future Climate? 33.1 The Eemian, the Last Interglacial 33.2 Sea Level During Older Interglacials 33.3 Arctic Sea Ice During Interglacials 33.4 The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum 33.5 Summary 34 The Instrumental Temperature Record 34.1 The Development of the Thermometer 34.2 Keeping Records 34.3 The Late Nineteenth Though Early Twenty-first Century Pattern of Temperature Change 34.4 Some Examples of Local Temperature Records 34.5 Larger Regional and Global Compilations 34.6 Summary 35 The Changing Climate of the Polar Regions 35.1 The Decline in Arctic Summer Sea Ice 35.2 Feedbacks in the Arctic 35.3 Arctic Permafrost 35.4 The Arctic Tundra and Boreal Forest 35.5 The Polar Ice sheets 35.6 The Greenland Ice Sheet 35.7 Antarctic Sea Ice 35.8 The Antarctic Ice Sheets 36 Global, Regional, and Local Effects of Our Changing Climate 36.1 The Long-Term View 36.2 Milankovitch Insolation 36.3 Temperature 36.4 Rain and Snow 36.5 Extreme Weather 36.6 Sea Level 36.7 Ocean Warming 36.8 El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation 36.9 Ocean Acidification 36.10 Ocean Anoxia 36.11 The Sahara-Sahel 36.12 Amazonia 36.13 Methane Clathrates 36.14 Critical Tipping Points 36.15 Summary 37 Final Thoughts 37.1 Global Climate Change 37.2 Global Population Growth 37.3 Predicting the Future 37.4 An Afterthought Author Index Subject Index Index of Works Mentioned