دانلود کتاب FutureThink: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Rapid Change

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Cover
Contents
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Part I: Personal Traps: Individual Biases and Blocks to Seeing and Understanding Change
Chapter 1: Looking Through Alien Eyes
Figure-Ground
Example #1: Male/Female
Example #2: Youth/Aging
Example #3: Able/Challenged
Example #4: Stability/Transition
Children Can Be Aliens
The Lesson of Alien Eyes
Chapter 2: Trend/Countertrend
Example #1: No Responsibility Self-Reliance
Example #2: The Sociology of Apology
Example #3: The Emerging Diseases of Affluence
Example #4: Technology, Thy Name Is Poetry
Example #5: Consuming Versus Saving Safety
Example #6: The Decline of Community and the Rise of a New Consumer Durable
So Newton Was a Futurist
Chapter 3: Substituting the Spiral for the Pendulum
Example #1: The Social Fabric
Example #2: Cycles in Business Oversight
Example #3: The Markets
Chapter 4: The Extremes Inform the Middle
Example #1: Corporate Social Responsibility Versus Free-Market Capitalism
Example #2: The Techies Versus the Luddites
Example #3: Free Speech Versus Censorship
Example #4: Traditional Versus Nontraditional Gender Roles
How to Study and Use the Extremes
Part II: Organizational Traps: Institutional Biases and Blocks to Responding to Change
Chapter 5: Efficiency Breeds Vulnerability
Example #1: Acceleration Through Electronics
Example #2: Efficiency in Government
Example #3: Warped Speed
The Continuing Importance of Redundancy
Chapter 6: The Multiplier Effect of New Distribution Channels
Example #1: Media
Example #2: Print Versus the Internet
Example #3: The Campus Versus Online Learning
Example #4: Retailing
Example #5: Health Care
Choices and Options
How Multiplication Can Help You See the Future
Attention Is the Monetary Unit
Chapter 7: Entropy
Example #1: Taxation
Example #2: The Internet
Example #3: Addiction to Adrenaline
Complexity and Entropy
Chapter 8: Integrity Begets Quality 105 Example #1: Getting and Keeping a Customer
Example #1: Getting and Keeping a Customer
Example #2: Apple Juice Should Be Made from Apples
Example #3: Do Unto Others...
Surface Social Responsibility Is Not Integrity
Stewardship and Integrity
Part III: Springing the Trap:Seeing the Big Picture
Chapter 9: The Law of Large Numbers
Example #1: Critical Mass
Example #2: Peer Pressure
Example #3: Bell-Shaped Curves
What Lies Ahead
Chapter 10: Demography
Example #1: Demography and Islam
Example #2: Why the Number of Youths Matters
Example #3: Asian Demographics
Example #4: Immigration
Example #5: Aging
Age and Relevance
Example #6: “Ymigration”
Example #7: The U.S. Becomes the Southern Hemisphere
Example #8: The Burgeoning Global Middle Class
Example # 9: Women
Example #10: Marketing to Children
Example #11: Where People Go
Caveat on Demography
Beware of Extrapolation
Chapter 11: Compromise Versus Lowest Common Denominators
Example #1: Employee Diversity
Example #2: Majority Rules
Example #3: International Conflict
Example #4: When the Denominators Are 4 and 8
Example #5: What’s in a Definition?
Example #6: John and Mary Public
The Bottom Line
Part IV: Imagining the Way: Using Metaphors to Free Your Mind
Chapter 12: The Three-Legged Stools of the Political Agenda
Example #1: The Foundation of the Republic
Example #2: The Political Parties
Example #3: The Male/Female Perspective
Chapter 13: Right-of-Way
Example #1: Customer-Centered Versus Sale-Centered
Example #2: Tunnel Vision
Example #3: The Infrastructure Dilemma
Example #4: The Amazon River
What Are Your Potential Rights-of-Way?
Chapter 14: Football Meets Shopping
We Always Shopped
First Down
Second Down
Third Down
Fourth Down
Chapter 15: Managing by Harnessing Evolution
The New Natural
Example #1: Cross-Breeding to Manage the Biosphere
Example #2: Evolution and the Management of Health and Social Services
Example #3: Managing Telecom
Example #4: Managing Biotech
Example #5: The Business of Managing Human Evolution
Survival of the Fittest
The Next Big Management Tool
Chapter 16: Self-Defeating and Self- Fulfilling Prophecies
Example #1: Orwell and Gates
Example #2: Government and Nongovernmental Organizations
Example #3: Your Mind and Body
Example #4: How to Make It Happen
Conclusion
Anticipation Is Key
What Type of Business Will Succeed?
Question Consensus
References
Index
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