دانلود کتاب Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future

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Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Contents
Foreword
Introduction
Part One Scaffolding
Chapter 1: We\'re Not in Kansas Anymore
Cut off from the Yellow Brick Road
The End of the Goldilocks Era
The Tornado Hits Kansas: Geopolitical Paradigm Shifts
The Nail in the Coffin: COVID‐19
Welcome to Oz
Beware of the Wizards
Chapter 2: The Constraint Framework: Three Pillars
Geopolitics Is Not a “Nice‐to‐have”
The First Pillar: Materialist Dialectic
Second Pillar: Diagnosticity of Constraints
Diagnosticity in Practice
Third Pillar: The Person versus the Situation
Fundamental Attribution Error in Practice
The Three Pillars of the Constraint Framework
And Now for Some Math
Where Do We Go from Here?
Chapter 3: The Wizards of Oz
Overview: Intelligence and Investing
The False Expert
The Connected Player
The Funnel
The Insider
The Spy
You Cannot Outsource Your Fiduciary Duty
Part Two The Constraints
Chapter 4: Politics
“You May Have All the Money, Raymond …”
… But Boris Has All the Rhetoric
Introducing the Median Voter Theorem
Predicting the Long‐term: Welcome to the Buenos Aires Consensus!
MVT in a Vote‐less Nation: Does China Have a Median Voter?
Political Constraints: Takeaway
Chapter 5: The Economy and the Market
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Fundamentals at Work: The German Question
Greece After the Euro: The Land of Milk and Honey?
Geopolitics versus Economics: Is Trade War Sustainable?
Power Dynamics and Ancient Greece: A Theory Interlude
Relative Gain: Why Trade Wars Fizzle in a Multipolar World
The World Wars: Economic Constraints in a Multipolar World
Economic and Market Constraints: Takeaway
Chapter 6: Geopolitics
Origins of Geopolitical Theory
The Trump Doctrine
Russia\'s Constraints Abroad
Geopolitics: The Takeaway
Chapter 7: Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Constraint–Preference Hybrids
Euro Area Crisis Averted
Trump and Trade
Reconciliation and the Markets
The US Budget Process
The Reconciliation Process
Reconciliation and the 2017 Tax Reform: So What?
How to Peddle a Budget‐busting Tax Cut
Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Takeaway
Chapter 8: The Time Constraint: When Preferences Run Down the Clock
Material Constraints Versus Terrorism
Material Constraints Versus COVID‐19
Non‐linearity and COVID‐19
Gargantuan Stimulus: Nuthin\' But a G Thang
Time is the Achilles\' Heel of the Constraint Method
Part Three Operationalization
Chapter 9: The Art of the Net Assessment
Three Lenses of Geopolitical Forecasting
Net Assessment: The Bayesian Prior
India Net Assessment: An Investment Thesis Built on Mean Reversion
What Is Keeping India from Mean Reverting?
Underinvested: India\'s Fulcrum Constraint
Why Is Investment the Fulcrum Constraint?
India Net Assessment: Investment Implications
War in the Middle East: Net Assessment
Net Assessment: The Takeaway
Chapter 10: Game Theory - It\'s Not a Game!
Before You Play the Game, Set the Gameboard
Beware Simplistic Games
Game Theory: The Takeaway
Chapter 11: Geopolitical Alpha
Chocolate Labrador Brian Versus Marine Le Pen
“So, You Want to Go Long Socialism and Short Capitalism”
Geopolitical Alpha: The Takeaway
Chapter 12: Conclusion
Acknowledgements
Bibliography
Index
EULA