دانلود کتاب History, the White House and the Kremlin: Statesmen as Historians

فهرست مطالب :

Cover\nHalf-title\nTitle\nCopyright\nContents\nList of contributors\nPreface\nAcknowledgements\n1 Introduction\n Notes\n2 United States policy and the Palestine problem: historical dimensions and the creation of an \'alternative narrative\'\n Notes\n3 The boundaries of rational calculation in Soviet policy towards Japan\n Notes\n4 The Cuban Missile Crisis twenty-five years later: the learning continues\n The impact of historical episodes on Soviet-American relations\n Realism, neorealism and learning\n A first attempt at a theory of political learning: a rule-based approach\n The limitations of the rule-based conception of learning\n A second attempt: a script-based approach — its appeal and limitations\n A Soviet model of the \'Caribbean Crisis\': Sergeev and Parshin\'s theory of reasoning and metaphor\n Learning within the framework of heuristic search: the acquisition of new scripts from historical episodes\n Delineating the concept of learning: innovation in the game of chess\n Multiple, simultaneous representations in the game of chess\n The historical dimension of chess: the acquisition of new gambits\n Extracting lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis\n Efforts in 1962 and in 1987-9 to explain Khrushchev\'s \'switch\'\n The fine art of drawing historical lessons\n Notes\n5 The Soviet General Staff: an institution\'s response to change\n The nature of the dependent variable\n The institutional characteristics of the Soviet General Staff\n The evolution of the Soviet General Staff\n Notes\n6 British and American hegemony compared: lessons for the current era of decline\n The historical analogy\n The historical reality\n I International political structures\n II. International economic structures\n III. International political processes\n IV. International economic processes\n Whither the Pax Americana?\n Conclusion\n Notes\n7 Being a borrower: the re-emergence of the United States as a debtor nation\n Notes\n8 The United States and inter-war money and finance: lessons for Japan\'s future from America\'s past\n The importance of the problem\n Analytical alternatives\n America abdicates\n Explaining American abdication\n Conclusions and implications\n Notes\n9 The politics of empire: a theory with an application to the Soviet case\n Introduction\n Explaining overexpansion\n The Soviet case\n Soviet strategic concepts\n 1. Molotov: Western hostility is unconditional; the defense has the advantage\n 2. Zhdanov: Western hostility is unconditional; offense has the advantage\n 3. Malenkov: Western hostility is conditional; the defense has the advantage\n 4. Khrushchev and Brezhnev: Western hostility is conditional; offense has the advantage\n Domestic politics: atavisms of the revolution from above\n Institutions and ideas of the revolution from above\n Stalinist atavisms and the politics of expansion\n Molotov, the military and the hedgehog strategy\n Zhdanov, the militant party and progressive change abroad\n Malenkov, the intelligentsia and the relaxation of tensions\n The Khrushchev and Brezhnev synthesis\n The Gorbachev revolution\n Conclusions\n Notes\n10 The power of historical analogies: Soviet interventions in Eastern Europe and US interventions in Central America\n Analogical reasoning and the structure of decisions\n Shifting the focus of analysis: from events and outcomes to cognitive process\n Extending and generalizing \'structured, focused comparison\'\n Analogical reasoning in foreign policy: the Soviet case\n A language of events and actions for the Soviet case\n Matching, splicing and rewriting histories\n Measures of discrepancy and deformation\n Analogies in action: The Soviet strategy on the eve of the invasion\n Composite analogies\n A more realistic model of analogical reasoning: the United States and Guatemala\n The dynamics of analogical reasoning\n Converting plans to lessons\n Extracting lessons from cases\n Foreign policy viewed as a workspace of partial plans\n Tracing policy through time\n Notes\n11 Learning and reasoning by analogy\n Introduction\n Learning and reasoning by analogy\n A theoretical framework of reasoning and learning by analogy\n The analysis of foreign policies in the context of scenarios\n Conclusion\n Notes\n12 Conclusion\n Notes\nIndex