دانلود کتاب Hydropower Special Market Report Analysis and forecast to 2030

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Hydropower Special Market Report
Analysis and forecasts to 2030
Abstract
Foreword
Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
Executive summary
Hydropower is the forgotten giant of low-carbon electricity
Strong sustainability standards are vital to unlock hydropower’s huge potential
Better visibility on revenues is key to attract investment at scale
Without major policy changes, global hydropower expansion is expected to slow down this decade
Chinese investment accounts for most hydropower growth in emerging and developing economies
The modernisation of ageing hydropower plants is necessary to maintain reliable and flexible power supplies
Hydropower’s flexibility is critical for integrating rising levels of wind and solar PV in electricity systems
Despite strong drivers, several barriers are hampering faster deployment of hydropower
Stronger policy attention and greater ambition for hydropower is needed to meet net-zero emissions goals
The IEA’s 7 priority areas for governments to accelerate hydropower growth
Introduction
Chapter 1 - Hydropower today
Hydropower is the largest source of low-carbon electricity
Hydro is the backbone of many advanced, developing and emerging economies’ electricity systems
Emerging economies and developing countries have led hydropower growth since the 1970s
Hydropower plants are ageing
Hydropower ownership profile depends on plant size
Hydropower plants are a primary contributor to system flexibility
Chapter 2 - Business case for hydropower
Investment costs
Lower labour costs and economically viable sites attract new hydropower development in emerging markets and developing countries
Generation costs and competitiveness
Financing costs and capacity factors are the primary determinants of hydropower generation costs
New and refurbished hydropower plants provide the world’s most cost-effective, dispatchable low-carbon electricity
Long-term contracts and policy support
Long-term power purchase contracts ensure economic viability and make the hydropower business case tenable
Policy support for hydropower remains limited
Challenges
Non-economic barriers must be lifted to enable greenfield development and fleet refurbishment
Hydropower’s multiple benefits are often not properly valuated
Robust sustainability standards and measures are needed to strengthen the hydropower business case
Chapter 3 - Hydropower outlook
Global forecast additions: Main case
Reservoir plants
Pumped-storage plants
Run-of-river plants
Greenfield and brownfield forecast
Small hydropower
Public sector investment will continue to drive global hydropower expansion
China’s involvement in hydropower development is critical for emerging and developing economies
Regional outlooks
China
Asia Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
Europe
North America
Rest of world
Accelerated case
Is hydropower growth on track with the IEA’s global energy roadmap, Net Zero by 2050?
Investment trends
Spending on plant modernisation is less than half of what is needed
Generation
Recent trends
Outlook to 2030
Global hydropower generation is projected to expand 19% over 2021-2030
Hydropower will likely remain the largest low-carbon source of electricity generation globally over the next decade
Future hydropower generation is subject to uncertainties
Capacity factors vary over time and across installations according to hydrological patterns and plant type and purposes
Hydropower generation has a strong seasonality component
Hydropower generation is sensitive to extreme hydrological events
Climate change impact on hydropower generation beyond 2030
Asia
Latin America
Africa
Chapter 4 - Special focus: Flexibility and storage
Higher VRE shares transform power systems and raise flexibility needs
How can hydropower technologies accommodate increasing flexibility requirements?
Run-of-river: Seasonal generation and relatively limited flexibility characteristics
Reservoir: Flexible key to electricity security
PSH: Giant flexible electricity storage
How does hydropower compare with other technologies?
A portfolio of hydropower plants offering complementary services can efficiently integrate large VRE shares
What is the storage capability of hydropower plants?
Reservoir hydropower plants provide energy storage capabilities unmatched by any other low-carbon technology
Electricity storage capabilities of PSH plants today and in 2030
Is hydropower a cost-effective technology to provide flexibility and storage?
Hydropower is the least expensive large-scale energy storage technology today
PSH’s role in providing flexibility is changing rapidly
Batteries are expected to close the cost gap with PSH in the next decade, but future power systems need both
Are hydropower’s flexibility and reliability services adequately remunerated?
Remuneration for flexibility remains low, but long-term contracts can stimulate new investment
Chapter 5 - Policy recommendations
Move hydropower up the energy and climate policy agenda
Policy priority
Enforce robust sustainability standards for all hydropower development with streamlined rules and regulations
Policy priorities
Recognise the critical role of hydropower for electricity security and reflect its value through remuneration mechanisms
Policy priorities
Maximise the flexibility capabilities of existing hydropower plants through measures to incentivise their modernisation
Policy priorities
Support the expansion of pumped storage hydropower
Policy priorities
Mobilise affordable financing for sustainable hydropower development in developing economies
Policy priorities
Take steps to ensure to price in the value of the multiple public benefits provided by hydropower plants
Policy priorities
References
Publisher’s page