دانلود کتاب Modelling Supply Chain Dynamics

فهرست مطالب :

Preface
Organisation of the Book
Acknowledgements
Contents
Acronyms
1 Introduction to Supply Chains
1.1 Introduction
1.2 The Rise of Supply Chains
1.2.1 A Definition of Supply Chain
1.2.2 Factors Facilitating Supply Chains
1.2.3 Main Elements of a Supply Chain
1.3 New Problems, New Opportunities: The Bullwhip Effect
1.3.1 The Bullwhip Effect
1.3.2 Barriers to Overcome the Bullwhip Effect
1.4 Modelling Supply Chain Dynamics
1.5 Summary
1.6 Further Readings
References
2 Supply Chain Management
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Main Activities in SCM: The SCOR Model
2.3 Demand Modelling and Forecast
2.3.1 Demand Modelling
2.3.2 Forecasting Techniques
2.3.3 Other Forecasting Techniques
2.3.4 Measuring the Error in the Estimations
2.3.5 MMSE Estimation
2.4 Source: Inventory Management
2.4.1 Forecasting the Demand
2.4.2 Estimating the On-Hand Inventory
2.5 Summary
2.6 Further Readings
References
3 Supply Chain Dynamics
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The Dynamic Behaviour of a SC
3.3 Behavioural Causes
3.4 Operational Causes
3.5 Approaches to Mitigate the Bullwhip Effect
3.5.1 Behavioural Causes
3.5.2 Operational Causes
3.6 Performance Measures in SC/SCD
3.6.1 Measuring Order Variability
3.6.2 Measuring Inventory Variability
3.6.3 Slope Metrics
3.6.4 Other Metrics
3.7 Summary
3.8 Further Readings
References
4 Basic Models for SC Dynamics
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Role of Modelling in OM/SCM
4.3 Elements of a Basic Supply Chain Model
4.4 Measuring the Bullwhip Effect
4.5 Putting All Pieces Together
4.5.1 Inventory Update
4.5.2 Work in process Update
4.5.3 Issuing the Order
4.5.4 Demand Estimates
4.5.5 A Simple Simulation Model
4.6 The Model at Supply Chain Level
4.6.1 An Expression of the BWE for a Two- and Three-Echelon SC
4.7 Implications of the Model: The Causes of Bullwhip Effect Revisited
4.8 Summary
4.9 Further Readings
References
5 The Effect of the Quality of Information in SCD
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Information Sharing
5.2.1 Expressing the Orders as a Function of the Customer Demand
5.2.2 Expressing the Orders Across the Supplier Lead Time as a Function of the Customer Demand
5.2.3 Orders Average and Standard Deviation for the No Info Sharing Scenario
5.2.4 Orders Average and Standard Deviation for the Info Sharing Scenario
5.2.5 The Impact of Information Sharing on Inventory
5.2.6 Using Past Orders to Forecast Demand
5.3 The Effect of Information Timeliness
5.3.1 Demand Estimate with Time-Lagged Data
5.3.2 The Error When Estimating with Time-Lagged Data
5.3.3 The Bullwhip Effect with Time-Lagged Data
5.4 Inaccuracies in the Inventory Information (IRI)
5.4.1 Shrinkage
5.4.2 Product Misplacement
5.4.3 Transaction Errors
5.5 Advance Demand Information
5.5.1 Perfect ADI in Make-to-Stock SCs
5.5.2 The Case of Imperfect ADI
5.6 Conclusions
5.7 Further Readings
References
6 Enriching SC Models
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Revisiting Some Hypotheses in the Basic SC Model
6.2.1 Backlogged Demand
6.2.2 Returned Orders
6.3 Variable Lead Times
6.3.1 Estimating Both Demand and Lead Times Using the Moving Average
6.3.2 Simulation Models
6.4 Order Crossover
6.5 Capacitated SCs
6.5.1 Modelling Capacity Limits
6.5.2 Workload-Dependent Lead Times
6.5.3 Combining Capacity Limitation with Load-Depending Lead Times
6.6 Conclusions
6.7 Further Readings
References
7 Closed-Loop Supply Chain
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Remanufacturing Scenarios
7.3 Market and Remanufacturing Visibility
7.3.1 Estimating the Flow of the Returns
7.4 Uncertainty in the Returns
7.4.1 No Consideration of the Return Flow
7.4.2 Estimation of the Return Flow
7.5 Conclusions
7.6 Further Readings
References
8 Modelling Complex SC Structures
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Several Retailers/Order Batching
8.2.1 Case 1: Independent Retailers
8.2.2 Case 2: Positively Correlated Orders
8.2.3 Comparing the Cases
8.3 Several Retailers with a Competing Market
8.3.1 Non-MMSE Estimations in a Competing Market
8.4 Conclusions
8.5 Further Readings
References
9 Further Issues in Modelling SC Dynamics
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Financial Considerations in SC Dynamics
9.3 Enhanced Forms of SC Collaboration
9.4 Supply Chain 4.0
9.5 Supply Chain Resilience and the Ripple Effect
9.6 Conclusions
References
Appendix A Useful Calculus Formulae
A.1 Geometric Series
A.2 Power Series
A.3 Leibniz\'s Rule
Appendix B Basic Probability Tools
B.1 Random Variables
B.1.0.1 Function of a RV
B.1.1 Main Characteristics of a RV
B.1.1.1 Expected Value
B.1.1.2 Variance of an RV
B.2 Random Vectors
B.2.1 Properties of the Random Vectors
B.2.2 Conditional Probability and Independence
B.2.3 Law of Total Expectation
B.2.4 Law of Total Variance
B.2.5 Random Sum
B.3 Independence of RVs
B.4 Useful Distributions
B.4.1 Bernoulli
B.4.2 Binomial
B.4.3 Normal
B.4.4 Gamma
Appendix C Time Series Basics for Demand Modelling
C.1 Stationary Time Series
C.1.1 AR(1) Series
C.1.1.1 Mean, Variance and Covariance
C.1.2 ARMA(p, q) Series
C.2 Minimum Mean Square Estimation (MMSE)
Index