دانلود کتاب More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (Updated and Expanded)

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CONTENTS\nAcknowledgments\nIntroduction\nPART 1: Investment Philosophy\n Introduction\n 1 Be the House: Process and Outcome in Investing\n Hit Me\n From Treasury to Treasure\n Prioritizing Process\n 2 Investing—Profession or Business? Thoughts on Beating the Market Index\n The Scouting Report\n Evaluating the Winners\n The Investment Profession Versus the Investment Business\n 3 The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency Versus Magnitude in Expected Value\n Batting with the Babe\n The Downside of Hardwiring\n Bulls, Bears, and Odds\n From OTC to OTB\n A Useful Analogy\n 4 Sound Theory for the Attribute Weary: The Importance of Circumstance-Based Categorization\n Circumstance Over Attributes\n The Three Steps of Theory Building\n When, Not What\n 5 Risky Business: Risk, Uncertainty, and Prediction in Investing\n Rocket Science\n From Uncertainty to Probability\n How Predictions Change Future Payoffs\n 6 Are You an Expert? Experts and Markets\n Man Versus Machine\n Where Do Experts Do Well?\n 7 The Hot Hand in Investing: What Streaks Tell Us About Perception, Probability, and Skill\n Finding the Hot Shot\n Streaks and Skill\n Toss Out the Coin Toss\n Streaks and Luck\n 8 Time Is on My Side: Myopic Loss Aversion and Portfolio Turnover\n One or One Hundred\n Explaining the Equity-Risk Premium\n The Value of Inactivity\n Pictures Worth a Thousand Words\n 9 The Low Down on the Top Brass: Management Evaluation and the Investment Process\n Management Counts\n Leadership\n Incentives\n Capital Allocation\n The Bottom Line\nPART 2: Psychology of Investing\n Introduction\n 10 Good Morning, Let the Stress Begin: Linking Stress to Suboptimal Portfolio Management\n Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers\n Why Money Managers Do Get Ulcers\n Shortening Horizons\n Imitating Ulysses\n 11 All I Really Need to Know I Learned at a Tupperware Party: What Tupperware Parties Teach You About Investing and Life\n A Tip from Shining Shoes\n You Can Fool Mother Nature\n All I Really Need to Know\n The Psychology of Investing\n 12 All Systems Go: Emotion and Intuition in Decision Making\n Emotions and Decisions\n Two Follows One\n The Affect Heuristic\n When the Experiential Fails\n Affect: Individual Versus the Collective\n 13 Guppy Love: The Role of Imitation in Markets\n Guppy See, Guppy Do\n Feedback—Negative and Positive\n Follow the Ant in Front of You\n Herding from the Grapevine\n 14 Beware of Behavioral Finance: Misuse of Behavioral Finance Can Lead to Bad Thinking\n Sorry Syllogism\n Mug’s Game?\n Bombs Away\n Money See, Money Do\n 15 Raising Keynes: Long-Term Expectations, the El Farol Bar, and Kidding Yourself\n What Do You Expect?\n Speculation and Enterprise\n Visiting El Farol\n Kidding Yourself\n 16 Right from the Gut: Investing with Naturalistic Decision Making\n Guns and Better (Decisions)\n Chopping Down the Decision Tree\n Investing au Naturel\n The Fine Print\n 17 Weighted Watcher: What Did You Learn from the Last Survey?\n I Do—Do You?\n Sifting Weights\n Misleading by Sample\n Tell Me Something the Market Doesn’t Know\nPART 3: Innovation and Competitive Strategy\n Introduction\n 18 The Wright Stuff: Why Innovation Is Inevitable\n Take Off with Recombination\n How Does Wealth Happen?\n Sic Itur ad Astra (This Is the Way to the Stars)\n Creative Destruction—Here to Stay\n 19 Pruned for Performance: What Brain Development Teaches Us About Innovation\n Too Clever by Half\n The Dynamics of Innovation\n Investors: Use the Brain\n 20 Staying Ahead of the Curve: Linking Creative Destruction and Expectations\n Losing Pride\n Goldilocks Expectations: Too Cold, Too Hot, Just Right\n Out with the Old, In with the New\n The Mind Makes a Promise That the Body Can’t Fill\n Expectations and Innovation\n 21 Is There a Fly in Your Portfolio? What an Accelerating Rate of Industry Change Means for Investors\n Fruit Flies and Futility\n Speed Trap?\n Investor Evolution\n 22 All the Right Moves: How to Balance the Long Term with the Short Term\n Managing for the Long Term\n Deep Blue’s Lessons\n Strategies for Winners\n Strategy as Simple Rules\n 23 Survival of the Fittest: Fitness Landscapes and Competitive Advantage\n A Peek at Another Peak\n Fitness Landscapes\n Look Before You Leap?\n Tools of the Trade-Off\n 24 You’ll Meet a Bad Fate If You Extrapolate: The Folly of Using Average P/Es\n Social Versus Security\n Nonstationarity and Historical P/Es\n Why the Past May Not Be Prologue\n Bounded Parameters\n Unpacking the (Mental) Baggage\n 25 I’ve Fallen and I Can’t Get Up: Mean Reversion and Turnarounds\n Returns and Growth\n Death, Taxes, and Reversion to the Mean\n I’ve Fallen and I Can’t Get Up\n 26 Trench Cooperation: Considering Cooperation and Competition Through Game Theory\n The War Metaphor—Death or Life?\n Why a Date and a Marriage Are So Different\n Price and Quantity\n 27 Great (Growth) Expectations: On the Limits of Corporate Growth\n Compounding and Confounding\n Reality Check\n The Bigger They Are, the Slower They Grow (or Don’t Grow)\n Refuse Refuge in Castles in the Air\nPART 4: Science and Complexity Theory\n Introduction\n 28 Diversify Your Mind: Thoughts on Organizing for Investing Success\n Ant Brain\n A-Mazing\n Getting a Diversity Degree\n Creativity and Investing\n 29 From Honey to Money: The Wisdom and Whims of the Collective\n Smart Ant\n Traveling Salesman? Follow the Ant\n Delphic Decision Markets\n The Stock Market—the Ultimate Hive?\n Swarm Smarts\n 30 Vox Populi: Using the Collective to Find, Solve, and Predict\n The Accuracy of Crowds\n Needle in a Haystack\n Weighing the Ox with the Vox\n Estimating Printers with Populi\n And Now, For the Real World\n 31 A Tail of Two Worlds: Fat Tails and Investing\n Experience Versus Exposure\n Tell Tail\n What Fat Tails Mean for Investors\n 32 Integrating the Outliers: Two Lessons from the St. Petersburg Paradox\n Bernoulli’s Challenge\n What’s Normal?\n St. Petersburg and Growth Stock Investing\n Integrating the Outliers\n 33 The Janitor’s Dream: Why Listening to Individuals Can Be Hazardous to Your Wealth\n Beyond Newton\n Sorting Systems\n The Stock Market as a Complex Adaptive System\n Using What You’ve Got\n 34 Chasing Laplace’s Demon: The Role of Cause and Effect in Markets\n Evolution Made Me Do It\n Laplace’s Demon\n Interpreting the Market\n Investor Risks\n 35 More Power to You: Power Laws and What They Mean for Investors\n Zipf It\n The More Things Change\n Catch the Power\n 36 The Pyramid of Numbers: Firm Size, Growth Rates, and Valuation\n Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare\n Find Your Niche\n Dear CEO: We’ve Made It to the Fortune 50! You’re Fired\n Extrapolative Expectations\n 37 Turn Tale: Exploring the Market’s Mood Swings\n Hush Puppies and Dogs of the Dow\n Ah Choo\n Economists, Meet Mr. Market\n No Progress in Human Nature\n Maintain Perspective\n 38 Stairway to Shareholder Heaven: Exploring Self-Affi nity in Return on Investment\n I Could Do That\n Stairway to Shareholder Heaven\n Making the Art Less Abstract\n Order and Disorder\n Conclusion: The Future of Consilience in Investing\nNotes\nReferences and Further Reading\nIndex