دانلود کتاب OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2019 ISSUE 2.

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Editorial Policy changes to turn the tide Conventional signs 1 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation Introduction Global growth will be held down by high uncertainty Global GDP, trade and investment growth have continued to slow Global growth is projected to remain subdued Price inflation will remain mild Key issues and risks Trade and investment tensions continue to rise and could spread further Uncertainty remains about the future UK-EU trade relationship Growth in China could slow more sharply than expected Risks to economic growth and financial stability interact Policy requirements Monetary policy considerations Fiscal policy considerations Options for domestic fiscal and monetary policy co-ordination Macroeconomic policy requirements in the emerging-market economies Greater structural reform ambition is called for in all economies References Annex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections 2 Focus Notes on selected macroeconomic and structural issues Focus Note 1: Addressing current trade tensions: Market-distorting government support Agriculture Industrial sectors What can be done about government support? References Focus Note 2: Escaping the low-inflation trap The slippage of inflation expectations Evidence of non-linear effects Non-linearity depending on inflation Non-linearity depending on the degree of slack Summary and possible policy implications References Focus Note 3: Rebalancing the policy mix in the euro area References Focus Note 4: Global policy co-operation is needed in the event of a deeper downturn Policy choices Results Focus Note 5: How effective are automatic fiscal stabilisers in preserving household income? Assessing automatic fiscal stabilisation of household disposable income Household income vs consumption stabilisation References 3 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies Argentina The economy is in recession and policy uncertainty is high Stabilising the economy requires tight macroeconomic policies Reducing policy uncertainty is key to revive the economy Australia Economic activity has been weak Fiscal policy could be loosened Economic growth is projected to be stable Austria Growth has moderated Policy measures should address still high labour taxes and boost productivity through structural reforms Uncertainty over trade is a downside risk for the export-driven economy Belgium Economic growth has eased Further reforms are needed to boost productivity growth Consumption will continue to support growth, but risks are high Brazil The expansion is gaining momentum The fiscal outlook remains challenging, but monetary policy is supportive Growth is projected to gain momentum Bulgaria Economic growth remains strong More effective government spending and structural reforms would boost productivity Growth is projected to moderate Canada Economic growth has slowed Policy should support the economy Growth will remain subdued Chile Domestic demand is driving growth Achieving higher and more inclusive growth hinges on continuing reforms The projected pick-up in growth is surrounded by considerable uncertainty China Growth remains robust Fiscal stimulus will support growth alongside moderate monetary easing Growth is projected to slow Colombia Consumption and investment are driving growth Further structural reforms are needed to boost inclusive growth Growth is projected to stay robust Costa Rica Economic activity has slowed down Full implementation of the fiscal reform is key to rebuild confidence Growth is projected to remain modest Czech Republic Robust growth is driven by domestic demand Policies need to address labour shortages Robust growth is projected to continue Denmark The economy has been resilient Policies should aim at improving cost-efficiency Growth is projected to slow down Estonia Growth is slowing The role of fiscal policy is set to increase The weak global outlook weighs on exports and investment Euro area The slowdown is becoming entrenched Fiscal and structural reform efforts need to be stepped up Growth is projected to remain subpar Finland Growth is slowing Measures to boost employment and productivity are needed Growth is projected to weaken France Economic growth has been resilient Additional reforms would raise inclusive growth Domestic demand will keep driving growth Germany Weak external demand is offset by domestic forces There is fiscal space to respond to the downturn Enduring weak external demand is a risk to economic growth Greece The export-driven economic expansion continues Structural reforms and prudent fiscal policies are key to reducing public debt The recovery will firm Hungary Domestic demand is the main driver of growth Reversing macroeconomic policies would sustain the upswing Slower growth will not remove inflationary tensions Iceland Growth is recovering Policy is neutral Growth will recover gradually India The economy is bottoming out Fiscal and monetary policies are accommodative Growth is projected to rebound Indonesia Growth remains resilient Policy continues to balance stability and growth The domestic economy will remain solid notwithstanding external headwinds Ireland Underlying growth momentum has slowed but remains solid Fostering resilience is key Growth prospects hinge on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations Israel Growth remains robust Fiscal prudence is needed Growth will ease slightly Italy The economy has remained weak A comprehensive reform plan is key Growth will slowly resume Japan Domestic demand is supporting growth Meeting the intertwined challenges of population ageing and government debt Growth is projected to remain just above potential Korea Weak exports and investment are pulling down growth Macroeconomic policy support needs to be complemented by structural reforms Growth is vulnerable to the global environment Latvia Strong growth is set to moderate Strengthening productivity growth is essential as the population declines The global slowdown will further hurt growth Lithuania Growth has been resilient Strengthening skills remains a key priority Growth will slow Luxembourg Growth is relying more on domestic demand Policies are needed to promote green growth and increase productivity Growth will ease but remain robust Mexico Economic activity has weakened Reforms are required to promote more inclusive growth Growth is projected to increase modestly Netherlands Weak external demand is weighing on growth Fiscal policy will support the economy Weaker trade and Brexit are risks for growth New Zealand Economic growth is stable Monetary policy is expansionary but fiscal policy will become contractionary Economic growth will remain steady Norway Economic growth remains robust A broadly neutral stance of fiscal policy is appropriate Mainland output growth will slow and risks remain elevated Poland Domestic demand is driving growth Structural reforms would help to raise long-term growth Growth will gradually ease Portugal Domestic demand is the main driver of economic growth Fiscal consolidation will reduce public debt Economic growth is projected to edge down Romania Economic growth has been strong Fiscal space is limited GDP growth is projected to slow Slovak Republic The economy has slowed The fiscal stance is set to be neutral Growth will slow in 2020 Slovenia Domestic inflationary pressures are building up Reducing the fiscal stimulus is required to prevent overheating Downside risks stem from prolonged tensions in international trade South Africa Falling exports and low domestic demand are weakening growth Reforms are needed to stimulate the economy Persistent low growth is set to continue Spain Growth has moderated Boosting productivity growth is key Growth is set to slow Sweden Growth is slowing markedly and unemployment is rising Policies are cushioning the downturn and fiscal space is available Growth will remain sluggish with downside risks Switzerland Growth has slowed Macroeconomic policy is set to become more expansionary External factors will exert a drag on growth Turkey Recovery is underway, but uncertainties remain very high Macroeconomic policy draws excessively on opaque instruments The recovery will be gradual and is vulnerable to substantial risks United Kingdom Economic uncertainty has held back investment Policy action will be needed to smooth the exit from the European Union Growth is projected to remain weak United States The economy is slowing Policies to address weakening growth are needed Risks abound around projected slowing economic growth Statistical Annex