دانلود کتاب Probability and induction

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Title page
Preface
PART I: INTRODUCTORY: KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEF
1. The Scope of the Inquiry
2. Subjectivist Theories of ProbabiIity: Meanings of \'Belief\'
3. The Relation of Probability to Evidence
4. The Nature of Opinion
5. Opinion as a Basis for Action
6. Probability and Induction: The Plan of this Book
PART II: THE TRADITIONAL PROBLEM OF INDUCTION
7. Aristotle\'s Definition of Induction
8. Summative Induction by Complete Enumeration
9. Intuitive Induction: Facts and Principles
10. Recursive or Mathematical Induction
II. Ampliative Induction and the Search for Causes
12. Bacon\'s Method of Induction by Elimination
13. Hume\'s Doctrine of Antecedent Causes
14. The Inductive Methods of J. S. Mill and their Presuppositions
15. Limits to the Use of the Notion of Cause in Natural Science
16. The Formulation of Natural Laws in Scientific Practice
17. Theories about the Logical Character of Natural Laws
18. Natural Necessity and Perception 7
19. The Explanation of Natural Laws
20. Criticism and Defence of Transcendent Hypotheses
21. The Relation between Induction and the Hypothetical Method
22. The Consilience of Primary Inductions
23. Confirmation and Elimination
PART III: THE THEORY OF CHANCES
24. The Notion of Chance
25. Probability Rules in Matters of Chance
26. Fundamentals of the Calculus of Chances
27. The Notion of Relevance and the Inversion Theorem
28. Theorems on the Composition of Sets
29. Bernoulli\'s Limit Theorem
30. Poincaré\'s Equalization Theorems
31. Equiprobability and Indifference
32. The Frequency Theory of Probability
33. The Defects of the Frequency Theory
34. The Analysis of Equiprobability
35. The Notion of Range
36. The Variety of the Probability Rules Covered by the Range Definition
37. The Determination of Probabilities a Priori and a Posteriori
38. Attempts to Justify Induction by Use of the Inversion Theorem
39. The Argument from Restriction of Alternatives
40. A Fundamental Objection to all Attempts to Justify Induction within the Theory of Chances
41. Sampling and the Use of Statistics
PART IV: THE PROBABILITY OF INDUCTIVE SCIENCE
43. The Policy of Primary Induction
44. The Justification of Primary Induction
45. Degrees of Acceptability in Primary Induction
46. The Policy of Secondary Induction
47. The Acceptability of Theories
48. Conclusion
INDEX