دانلود کتاب Reducing the Vulnerability of Armenia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options (World Bank Studies)

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Front Cover\nContents\nForeword\nPreface\nAcknowledgments\nAbout the Authors\nAbbreviations\nExecutive Summary\n Introduction\n Key Climate Change Challenges for Armenia’s Agricultural Sector\n Analysis of the Vulnerability of Armenia’s Agricultural Sector to Climate Change\n Identifying a Menu of Adaptation Options\nChapter 1\rThe Study: Design, Methodology, and Limitations\n Overview of Approach\n Methodology\n Limitations\n Note\nChapter 2\rOverview of Agricultural Sector and Climate in Armenia\n Overview of Armenia’s Agricultural Sector\n Exposure of Armenia’s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change\n Note\nChapter 3\rImpacts of Climate Change on Armenia’s Agricultural Sector\n Impacts on Crops and Livestock Systems in Armenia\n Impacts on Water Availability for Agriculture\n Armenia’s Current Adaptive Capacity\n Note\nChapter 4\rAssessment of Menu of Adaptation Options and Recommendations\n Adaptation Assessment\n Recommendations\n Notes\nAppendix A\rMitigation Potential of Agricultural Adaptation Options\nGlossary\nBibliography\nBoxes\n Box 1.1 Developing a Range of Future Climate Change Scenarios for Armenia\n Box 1.2 Description of Modeling Tools\nFigures\n Figure ES.1 Climate Change Risks and Recommended Adaptation Measures at the National Level\n Figure ES.2 Climate Change Risks and Recommended Adaptation Measures for the Lowlands Agricultural Region\n Figure ES.3 Estimated Effect of Climate Change on Mean Monthly Runoff Average in the 2040s\n Figure ES.4 Effect of Climate Change on Irrigated Crop Yields Adjusted for Estimated Irrigation Water Deficits in the 2040s\n Figure 1.2 Steps in Quantitative Modeling of Adaptation Options\n Figure 1.1 Flow Chart of Phases of the Study\n Figure 2.1 Areas Planted by Crop in Armenia, 2000–10\n Figure 2.2 Effect of Climate Change on Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Patterns for the Intermediate Agricultural Region (\n Figure 3.1 Mean Monthly 2040s Irrigation Water Demand over All Armenian Basins\n Figure 3.2 Annual Runoff for All Armenian Basins, 2011–50\n Figure 3.3 Mean Monthly 2040s Runoff for All Armenian Basins\n Figure 3.4 Mean Unmet 2040s Monthly Irrigation Water Demands over All Armenian Basins\n Figure 3.6 Grape Fresh Yield in Selected Countries, Average of 2007–09\n Figure 3.5 Wheat Yield in Selected Countries, Average of 2007–09\n Figure 4.1 Estimated Crop Revenues Per Hectare in the 2040s Before Adaptation Actions\n Figure 4.2 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis Results for New Irrigation Infrastructure in the Intermediate Agricultural Region\n Figure 4.3 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis Results for Rehabilitated Irrigation Infrastructure for Crops in the Intermediate\n Figure 4.4 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis Results for Optimizing the Application of Irrigation Water in the Intermediate Agr\n Figure 4.5 Illustrative Benefit-Cost Analysis for Optimizing Crop Varieties in the Intermediate Agricultural Region\n Figure 4.6 Illustrative Results of Benefit-Cost Analysis for Optimized Fertilizer Use in the Intermediate Agricultural Region\n Figure 4.7 Impact of Optimizing Basin-wide Irrigation Efficiency in the Upper Araks Basin\n Figure 4.8 Preliminary Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Water Storage in the Upper Araks Basin\n Figure 4.9 Illustrative Results of Net present value Analysis for Hail Nets to Protect Selected Crops in the Intermediate Agricu\n Figure 4.10 National-level Recommended Measures\n Figure 4.11 Lowland Agricultural Region Recommended Measures\n Figure 4.13 Mountainous Agricultural Region Recommended Measures\n Figure 4.12 Intermediate Agricultural Region Recommended Measures\nMaps\n Map ES.1 Effect of Climate Change on Average Annual Temperature in the 2040s under the Low, Medium, and High Impact Climate Scen\n Map ES.2 Effect of Climate Change on Average Annual Precipitation in the 2040s under the Low, Medium, and High Impact Climate Sc\n Map 1.1 Agricultural Regions of Armenia\n Map 2.1 River Basins in Armenia\n Map 2.2 Irrigated Areas in Armenia\n Map 2.3 Effect of Climate Change on Annual Average Temperature from 2010 to 2050 for Low, Medium, and High Impact Climate Scenar\n Map 2.4 Effect of Climate Change on Average Annual Precipitation from 2010 to 2050 for the Climate Scenarios\n Map 3.1 Mean Percentage Change in 2040s Runoff Relative to the Historical Baseline (left: all months, right: the period from May\n Map 4.1 Locations of the Second Stakeholder Consultations\nTables\n Table ES.1 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s under the Medium Impact Climate Scenario (No Adaptation and No I\n Table ES.2 Summary of Key Climate Hazards, Impacts, and Adaptation Measures at the Nationaland Agricultural Region Levels\n Table 2.1 Value of Agricultural Products in Armenia in 2010\n Table 2.2 Size of Irrigated Areas in Armenia’s River Basins\n Table 2.3 Livestock Count by Agricultural Region\n Table 3.1 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s under the Medium Impact Scenario (No Adaptation and No Irrigation\n Table 3.2 Range of Yield Changes Relative to the Current Situation (Percent Change to 2040s) Across the Three Climate Scenarios\n Table 3.3 Change in Irrigation Water Requirements Relative to Current Situation (Percent Change to 2040s) Under the Low, Medium,\n Table 3.4 Effect of Climate Change on Forecast Annual Irrigation Water Shortfall by Basin and Climate Scenario\n Table 3.5 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in 2040s Relative to Current Yields for Irrigated Crops\n Table 4.1 Adaptation Measures with Highest Net Benefits: Lowland Agricultural Region\n Table 4.2 Adaptation Measures with Highest Net Benefits: Intermediate Agricultural Region\n Table 4.3 Adaptation Measures with Highest Net Benefits: Mountainous Agricultural Region\n Table 4.4 List of Adaptation Options for Consideration\n Table 4.5 Ranked Recommendations from the Artashat Consultation\n Table 4.6 Ranked Recommendations from the Yeghegnadzor Consultation\n Table 4.8 Stakeholder-ranked National-Level Climate Adaptations\n Table 4.7 Ranked Recommendations from the Martuni Consultation\n Table 4.9 Ranking of Adaptation Measures by Small Groups\n Table 4.10 Results of Small Group Multicriteria Weighting Exercise\n Table 4.11 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Adaptation Options\n Table A.1 Summary of Adaptation Measures and Potential Mitigation Levels\nBack Cover