دانلود کتاب Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis

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Cover
Half Title page
Title page
Copyright page
Contents
Preface
1 Introduction
1.1 Hazard and Risk Analysis
1.2 Uses of Hazard and Risk Information
1.3 Deterministic Analysis
1.4 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
1.5 Probabilistic Risk Analysis
1.6 Benefits of Probabilistic Analysis
1.7 Uncertainties in Probabilistic Analysis
1.8 Validation
Part I Hazard Inputs
2 Seismic Source Characterization
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Earth Structure and Plate Tectonics
2.3 Faults
2.4 Earthquake Processes
2.5 Earthquake Size
2.6 Definitions of Seismic Sources
2.7 Source Characteristics
2.8 Conceptual Development of SSMs
Exercises
3 Characterization of Earthquake Rates and Rupture Scenarios
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Approaches to Determining Rupture Rates 60
3.3 Constraints from Seismicity Data
3.4 Geological Constraints on Activity
3.5 Magnitude-Frequency Distributions
3.6 Rupture Scenarios and Computation of Rates 110
3.7 Generation of Rupture Scenarios
3.8 Time-Dependent Rupture Rates
Exercises
4 Empirical Ground-Motion Characterization
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Engineering Characterization of Ground Motion 149
4.3 Ground-Motion Databases
4.4 Mathematical Representation
4.5 General Trends in Empirical Data and Models 170
4.6 Prediction Using Empirical GMMs
4.7 Epistemic Uncertainty
4.8 Limitations of Empirical GMMs
Exercises
5 Physics-Based Ground-Motion Characterization
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Utility of Physics-Based Ground-Motion Simulation 198
5.3 Earthquake Source Representation
5.4 Seismic Wave Propagation
5.5 Methods for Physics-Based Ground-Motion Simulation 220
5.6 Prediction Using Physics-Based GMMs
Exercises
Part II Hazard Calculations
6 PSHA Calculation
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The PSHA Calculation
6.3 Example Calculations
6.4 Hazard Curve Metrics
6.5 Sensitivity of Hazard Results to Inputs
6.6 Model Uncertainty
6.7 Logic Trees
6.8 PSHA with Epistemic Uncertainty
6.9 Monte Carlo PSHA
6.10 Discussion
Exercises
7 PSHA Products
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Disaggregation
7.3 Uniform Hazard Spectrum
7.4 Hazard Maps
7.5 Conditional Spectrum
7.6 Vector PSHA
7.7 Earthquake Sequences in PSHA
7.8 Implementation and Documentation of Hazard Studies 316
Exercises
8 Non-Ergodic Hazard Analysis
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Fundamental Concepts
8.3 Aleatory Variability versus Epistemic Uncertainty 324
8.4 When Can Non-Ergodic Approaches Be Applied? 330
8.5 Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models
8.6 Non-Ergodic Site Effects
8.7 Non-Ergodic Path Effects
8.8 Non-Ergodic Source Effects
8.9 Non-Ergodic Components in Seismic-Source Models 357
Exercises
Part III Risk
9 Seismic Risk
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Fragility and Vulnerability Functions
9.3 Calibrating Fragility and Vulnerability Functions 378
9.4 Risk Metrics
9.5 PEER Framework
9.6 Epistemic Uncertainty
9.7 Risk-Targeted Ground-Motion Intensity
Exercises
10 Ground-Motion Selection
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Principles of Hazard-Consistent Ground-Motion Selection 407
10.3 Target Intensity Measure Distributions
10.4 Selection Algorithms
10.5 Assessing Accuracy and Precision of Seismic Responses 436
10.6 Application-Specific Decisions
10.7 Design Code and Guideline Requirements 442
10.8 Documentation
Exercises
11 Spatially Distributed Systems
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Parameterization Using Empirical Ground-Motion Models 451
11.3 Parameterization Using Physics-Based Simulations 465
11.4 Numerical Implementation
11.5 Coherency
11.6 Risk
Exercises
12 Validation
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Verification and Validation
12.3 Validation from Limited Observations
12.4 Direct Validation of Seismic Hazard Curves 491
12.5 Validation of Model Components
12.6 Do Failures of Past Calculations Invalidate the PSHA Methodology? 501
12.7 Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Decision-Making 502
Exercises
Appendix A Basics of Probability
A.1 Random Events
A.2 Conditional Probability
A.3 Random Variables
A.4 Expectations and Moments
A.5 Common Probability Distributions
A.6 Random Number Generation
Appendix B Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration
B.1 Confidence Intervals for the Sample Mean and Standard Deviation
B.2 Hypothesis Testing for Statistical Significance
B.3 Statistical Estimation of mmax
B.4 Bayesian Estimation of mmax
B.5 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Seismicity Parameters
B.6 Empirical GMM Calibration
B.7 Estimation of IM Correlations from GMMs
B.8 Fragility Function Fitting
References
List of Symbols and Abbreviations
Notation Conventions
Index