دانلود کتاب Strategic risk taking: a framework for risk management

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Cover......Page 1
CONTENTS......Page 8
INTRODUCTION: A Roadmap for Understanding Risk......Page 18
CHAPTERS 1–4 The Economists’ View of Risk Aversion and the Behavioral Response......Page 20
A Very Short History of Risk......Page 22
Defining Risk......Page 24
Dealing with Risk......Page 26
Risk Management......Page 27
Conclusion......Page 28
The Duality of Risk......Page 30
I Am Rich, But Am I Happy? Utility and Wealth......Page 31
Measuring Risk Aversion......Page 37
Consequences of Views on Risk......Page 47
Conclusion......Page 49
General Principles......Page 54
Evidence on Risk Aversion......Page 55
Propositions about Risk Aversion......Page 80
Conclusion......Page 82
Fate and Divine Providence......Page 84
Estimating Probabilities: The First Step to Quantifying Risk......Page 85
Sampling, The Normal Distributions, and Updating......Page 87
The Insurance View of Risk......Page 89
Financial Assets and the Advent of Statistical Risk Measures......Page 90
The Markowitz Revolution......Page 92
Introducing the Riskless Asset—The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Arrives......Page 96
Mean Variance Challenged......Page 97
Data Power: Arbitrage Pricing and Multifactor Models......Page 102
Conclusion......Page 105
CHAPTERS 5–8 Risk Assessment: Tools and Techniques......Page 116
Discounted Cash Flow Approaches......Page 118
Post-Valuation Risk Adjustment......Page 136
Relative Valuation Approaches......Page 147
The Practice of Risk Adjustment......Page 149
Conclusion......Page 150
Fixed Discount......Page 155
Firm-Specific Discount......Page 156
Synthetic Bid-Ask Spread......Page 161
Option-Based Discount......Page 162
Scenario Analysis......Page 164
Decision Trees......Page 172
Simulations......Page 183
An Overall Assessment of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches......Page 197
Conclusion......Page 201
Fitting the Distribution......Page 202
Tests for Fit......Page 215
Tests of Normality......Page 217
Conclusion......Page 218
What Is VaR?......Page 220
A Short History of VaR......Page 221
Measuring VaR......Page 223
Limitations of VaR......Page 237
Extensions of VaR......Page 242
VaR as a Risk Assessment Tool......Page 244
Conclusion......Page 246
The Essence of Real Options......Page 250
Real Options, Risk-Adjusted Value, and Probabilistic Assessments......Page 252
Real Option Examples......Page 254
Caveats on Real Options......Page 276
Real Options in a Risk Management Framework......Page 279
Conclusion......Page 280
Option Payoffs......Page 281
Determinants of Option Value......Page 283
Option Pricing Models......Page 285
CHAPTERS 9–12 Risk Management: The Big Picture......Page 296
CHAPTER 9 Risk Management: The Big Picture......Page 298
Risk and Value: The Conventional View......Page 299
Expanding the Analysis of Risk......Page 306
A Final Assessment of Risk Management......Page 320
Developing a Risk Management Strategy......Page 323
Conclusion......Page 325
Risk Profile......Page 328
To Hedge or Not to Hedge?......Page 338
Alternative Techniques for Hedging Risk......Page 350
Conclusion......Page 358
Why Exploit Risk?......Page 360
How Do You Exploit Risk?......Page 364
Building the Risk-Taking Organization......Page 375
Conclusion......Page 384
1. Risk Is Everywhere......Page 386
3. We Are Ambivalent About Risks and Not Always Rational About the Way We Assess or Deal with Risk......Page 388
4. Not All Risk Is Created Equal......Page 389
5. Risk Can Be Measured......Page 391
6. Good Risk Measurement/Assessment Should Lead to Better Decisions......Page 392
7. The Key to Good Risk Management Is Deciding Which Risks to Avoid, Which Ones to Pass Through, and Which to Exploit......Page 393
8. The Payoff to Better Risk Management Is Higher Value......Page 394
10. Successful Risk-Taking Organizations Do Not Get There by Accident......Page 395
Conclusion......Page 397
C......Page 398
D......Page 399
F......Page 400
I......Page 401
M......Page 402
P......Page 403
Q–R......Page 404
T......Page 406
X–Z......Page 407