دانلود کتاب Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

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Chapter 1 • Introduction and Overview
1.1 Our Vision


1.2 Role of Structured Analytic Techniques


1.3 History of Structured Analytic Techniques


1.4 The Expanding Use of Structured Analytic Techniques


1.5 Selection of Techniques for This Book


1.6 Quick Overview of Chapters



Chapter 2 • The Role of Structured Techniques
2.1 Two Types of Thinking


2.2 Developing a Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques


2.3 Dealing with Cognitive Limitations


2.4 Matching Cognitive Limitations to Structured Techniques


2.5 Combating Digital Disinformation



Chapter 3 • Choosing the Right Technique
3.1 The Six Families


3.2 Core Techniques


3.3 Selecting the Right Technique


3.4 Projects Using Multiple Techniques


3.5 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques


3.6 Making a Habit of Using Structured Techniques



Chapter 4 • Practitioner’s Guide to Collaboration
4.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams


4.2 Dividing the Work


4.3 Value of Collaborative Processes


4.4 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups


4.5 Benefiting from Diversity


4.6 Advocacy versus Objective Inquiry


4.7 Leadership and Training



Chapter 5 • Getting Organized
5.1 Sorting


5.2 Ranking, Scoring, and Prioritizing


5.3 Matrices


5.4 Process Maps


5.5 Gantt Charts



Chapter 6 • Exploration Techniques
6.1 Simple Brainstorming


6.2 Cluster Brainstorming


6.3 Nominal Group Technique


6.4 Circleboarding™


6.5 Starbursting


6.6 Mind Maps and Concept Maps


6.7 Venn Analysis


6.8 Network Analysis



Chapter 7 • Diagnostic Techniques
7.1 Key Assumptions Check


7.2 Chronologies and Timelines


7.3 Cross-Impact Matrix


7.4 Multiple Hypothesis Generation


7.5 Diagnostic Reasoning


7.6 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses


7.7 Inconsistencies Finder™


7.8 Deception Detection


7.9 Argument Mapping



Chapter 8 • Reframing Techniques
8.1 Cause and Effect Techniques


8.2 Challenge Analysis Techniques


8.3 Conflict Management Techniques



Chapter 9 • Foresight Techniques
9.1 Key Drivers Generation™


9.2 Key Uncertainties Finder™


9.3 Reversing Assumptions


9.4 Simple Scenarios


9.5 Cone of Plausibility


9.6 Alternative Futures Analysis


9.7 Multiple Scenarios Generation


9.8 Morphological Analysis


9.9 Counterfactual Reasoning


9.10 Analysis by Contrasting Narratives


9.11 Indicators Generation, Validation, and Evaluation



Chapter 10 • Decision Support Techniques
10.1 Opportunities Incubator™


10.2 Bowtie Analysis


10.3 Impact Matrix


10.4 SWOT Analysis


10.5 Critical Path Analysis


10.6 Decision Trees


10.7 Decision Matrix


10.8 Force Field Analysis


10.9 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes


10.10 Complexity Manager



Chapter 11 • The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques
11.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis


11.2 Purpose of Structured Techniques


11.3 Projecting the Trajectory of Structured Techniques


11.4 Role of Structured Techniques in 2030