دانلود کتاب The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures: A Big History Perspective (World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures)

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Foreword\nContents\nEditors and Contributors\n ch\n1 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective: An Overview\n Introductory Notes\n Placing the Current Singularity Trend into Big History Context\n Book Organization\n References\n2 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective—A Re-analysis\n Introduction\n Kurzweil–Modis Time Series and Mathematical Singularity\n Panov’s Transformation\n Modis–Kurzweil Time Series: A Mathematical Analysis\n Exponential and Hyperbolic Patterns of Global Acceleration: A Comparison\n Formula of Acceleration of the Global Macroevolutionary Development in the Modis–Kurzweil Time Series\n Time Series of Panov and Modis–Kurzweil—An External Comparative Analysis\n Panov Time Series: A Mathematical Analysis\n Formulas of the Acceleration of Global Macroevolutionary Development in Panov and Modis–Kurzweil Series: A Comparison\n A Striking Discovery of Heinz Von Foerster\n On the Formula of Acceleration of the Global Evolutionary Development\n Toward the Singularity Interpretation. The Place of the Singularity in the Big History and Global Evolution\n Conclusion\n Appendices\n Appendix 1: Relationship Between the Pattern of Acceleration of the Planetary Complexity Growth and the Equation of the World Population Hyperbolic Growth\n Appendix 2: On Some Patterns on Global Macroevolutionary Acceleration—Additional Calculations\n References\n3 Exploring the Singularity Concept Within Big History\n Basic Questions\n What Is the Definition of a Singularity?\n What Type of Simple Model Has a Singularity Behavior?\n What Is Driving the Rate of Change and Complexity Increase?\n What Is the Role of Energy, Information, and Entropy?\n Is There Substructure in the Trend Leading to the Singularity?\n Detailed Questions\n What Are the Potential Indicators of How the Singularity Will Behave?\n When Might the Singularity Occur?\n What Models and Metaphors Apply to the Singularity and Associated Transitions?\n Why Does the Substructure Follow a Mathematical Pattern?\n Extension Questions\n What Is the Near-Term Impact of the Singularity Trend?\n What Might the Far-Future Look like if the Trend Continues?\n Are There Trends in Worldviews?\n Did the Far-Past of Cosmological History (Before Earth) Show Similar Trends?\n What Are the Conditions (e.g., on Other Worlds) that Lead to a Singularity Trend?\n How Might This Inform Us About Potential Explanations of the Fermi Paradox?\n Conclusions\n References\nHistorical Mega-Trends\n4 Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update\n Review\n The Facts\n A Very Simple Argument\n References\n5 Hyperbolic Evolution from Biosphere to Technosphere\n Introduction\n Panov’s Pattern\n Derivation of Formula for the Panov Pattern\n Comparison with Actual Data\n Subjectivity Problem\n The Growth Rate of Sedimentary Rocks’ Thickness\n On the Possibility of Global Influence of the Biosphere on Sedimentation\n Logarithmic Growth Rate of Sedimentary Rocks Thickness\n Dynamics of Marine Species Density\n Hyperbolic Growth—Like the Population of the Earth\n Conclusion\n Appendix\n References\n6 Big History and Singularity as Metaphors, Hypotheses, and Predictions\n The Main Hypothesis About the Speed of Evolution, Its Pulsations, Accelerations, and Decelerations\n Does the Choice of Phase Transitions, Their Number and Dates Influence the Representation of Evolution in the Form of a Hyperbola, Tending to the Singularity Point?\n Is Hyperbolic Relationship Preserved When Choosing a Different Position of the Singularity Point?\n Possible Reasons for Choosing the Value of the Denominator of the Geometric Intervals Between the Most Important Phase Transitions\n The Duration of the Geochronological Scale Segments as Indicators of the Rate of Evolution\n The Correlation of Geological, Biological, and Social Evolution\n Acceleration of Biological and Social Evolution Without Phase Transition Points\n References\n7 Big History Trends in Information Processes\n Introduction\n Definitions of Information, Entropy, and Complexity\n Information, Entropy, Energy, and Complexity in Evolution\n Singularity Trend\n Possible Trends and Limits\n Conclusion\n References\n8 Plurality: The End of Singularity?\n Introduction\n Temporal Patterns in the AI Plurality\n Broken Intelligence as a New Singularity Scenario\n The Diverging Trends of AI and Neuroscience\n The Breach of Brain Simulation\n Mathematics, Rather Than Brain Imitation\n Does Deep Learning Progress Artificial General Intelligence?\n The Slowing Down in Brain Understanding\n A Formal Account of the Slowing Down\n The Self-design Skill\n Conclusions\n References\n9 Energy Flow Trends in Big History\n Introduction\n Role of Energy Flow in Big History\n Recent Trends\n Current Situation\n Energy Transition Case: India\n Possible Future\n Conclusion\n References\n10 The Deductive Approach to Big History’s Singularity\n Introduction\n Time in the Informatics-Cybernetics Model of Humankind’s Self-controlling System\n Geometric Temporal Trend in the “Fibonacci’s” Model of the Archaeological Epoch\n Time in the Combined Model of Chronology and Periodization of the Archaeological Epoch\n Conclusions\n References\nModels\n11 Near-Term Indications and Models of a Singularity\n Introduction\n Topics and Approaches\n Models\n Experiences with Historical Rapidly Accelerating Processes\n Conclusions\n References\n12 Is Singularity a Scientific Concept or the Construct of Metaphysical Historicism? Implications for Big History\n Introduction\n Evaluating the Singularity Concept in Big History\n A Flawed Scientific Method\n Incorrectly Specified Transformation Functions\n Setting the Record Straight\n Reinventing the Wheel or Redesigning Its Shape?\n Some Personal History\n Proposing a More Scientific Approach to the Future\n The Pathway of Life\n The Logological Constant\n The Great Waves of Life\n Biological and Technological Paradigm Shifts\n Engine of Life\n The Dynamic-Strategy Theory—A Brief Outline\n The Driving Force\n The Dynamic Mechanism\n Strategic Exhaustion\n The Future of Technological Transition\n ‘In My End Is My Beginning’ (T. S. Eliot, East Coker)\n References\nFuture Implications\n13 Threshold 9: Big History as a Roadmap for the Future\n Introduction\n Threshold 9: Key Concepts\n The Great Acceleration\n The Law of Accelerating Returns\n Transhumanism—the Defining “Ism” of the Twenty-First Century?\n Ape Brains in a Transhuman World—Accounting for Human Nature\n Threshold 9: Teaching Topics\n References\n14 Dynamics of Technological Growth Rate and the Forthcoming Singularity\n Introduction\n On Increasing Speed of Historical Process\n Objectives of This Chapter\n The Structure of the Chapter\n Materials and Methods\n The Development of Historical Process in the Light of the Theory of Production Principles\n Production Principles and Production Revolutions\n The Hunter-Gatherer Production Principle\n The Craft-Agrarian Production Principle\n The Trade-Industrial Production Principle\n The Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle and the Cybernetic Revolution\n Mathematical Interpretation of Technological Progress (in the Framework of Historical Process)\n Introduction\n Mathematical Interpretation of Technological Progress. Methodology and Calculations\n Calculation of the Singularity with the Incompleteness of the Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle\n Calculation of the Singularity Taking into Account Forecasted Phases of the Scientific-Cybernetic Production Principle\n Global Ageing as a Factor Influencing the Technological Growth Rate\n Ageing and Technological Progress: A Positive Feedback\n Global Ageing and Technological Progress in the Last Third of the Twenty-First Century and the Early Twenty-Second Century: A Possible Negative Feedback\n Conclusion\n Transition to a Managed Development and the End of the Economic Consumption Model?\n General Conclusion\n Acknowledgement\n References\n15 The Twenty-First Century’s “Mysterious Singularity” in the Light of the Big History\n To Start with: Comments on Methodology\n Big History: A Cross-Disciplinary Research Project\n The Singularity Puzzle\n Is a Cosmic Perspective Possible?\n Technology, Psychology and Social Viability: The Law of Techno-Humanitarian Balance\n Peace and War: The Diffusing Criteria\n Life’s Meaning: The Nucleus of Twenty-First Century Global Problems\n Recommendations\n References\n16 Global Brain: Foundations of a Distributed Singularity\n Introduction\n History\n Metaphor\n Foundations\n Metasystem\n Challenge Propagation: Towards an Organization Theory\n References\n17 The Cybernetic Revolution and the Future of Technologies\n Introduction Between Human and Post-human Revolutions\n Technological Dimension of Historical Processes\n The Three Production Revolutions\n The Cybernetic Revolution, Self-regulation, and Artificial Intelligence\n Future Technologies\n Future Medical Technologies\n The Future of Biotechnology\n Artificial Intelligence, Robots, Nanotechnologies, Additive and Cognitive Technologies\n Some Ideas on Future ‘Smart’ Technologies\n Conclusion. Will the Development of the Cybernetic Revolution Proceed in the Direction of Cyborgization?\n Acknowledgements\n References\n18 Complexity in the Future: Far-from-Equilibrium Systems and Strategic Foresight\n Problematising the Big History Approach to the Future\n Strategic Foresight and the Near Future\n Subtleties of Interpretation\n Evaluating Feasibility\n The Chaissonian Metric and Near Future\n The Contours of the Future\n References\n19 Future Technological Achievements as a Challenge for Post-singularity Human Society\n Introduction\n Is a Scientific Forecast Possible?\n How Far Ahead Can We Predict?\n The Complexity and Detail of the Forecast\n What Has Happened to Liberal Democracy?\n Technical Progress and Changes in the Global Division of Labor\n Two Ways to Create New Employment\n Social Structure of the Western Society in the Coming Decades\n Transitioning Towards a Complete Restructuring of Human Society\n References\n20 Singularity of Evolution and Post-singular Development in the Big History Perspective\n Scale Invariance and the Singularity of Evolution\n The SETI Problem and the Evolution of Intelligence in the Galaxy\n “Exohumanism” of a Post-singular Civilization\n Cosmic Expansion and Intensive Development\n Information Crisis\n Off-Planet Communication of Post-singularity Civilizations\n The Galactic Cultural Field and the Character of Information in Cosmic Transmissions\n Final Remarks\n References\nEpistemology and Ontology\n21 Big History by Mathematics: Information, Energy, and the Singularity\n Introduction\n Biological Evolution as a Realization of Geometric Brownian Motion in the Number of Living Species\n During the Last 3.5 Billion Years Life Forms Increased Like a Lognormal Stochastic Process\n Expected Statistical Variations\n Important Special Cases of ML(T)\n Peak-Locus Theorem\n Representing Lifetimes with the b-lognormal Probability Distribution\n The Peak-Locus Theorem Using b-Lognormals\n Evo-entropy as a Measure of Evolution\n Definition\n Linear Evo-Entropy When the Mean Value Is Exponential (a GBM): This Is Just the Molecular Clock\n Introducing the Evo-SETI Unit\n Markov–Korotayev Alternative to Exponential: A Cubic Growth\n Conclusions\n References\n22 The Twenty-First-Century Singularity: The Role of Perspective and Perception\n Introduction\n Historical Hyperbolas\n Hyperbolas and Exponentials\n Cosmic Evolution and the Weber–Fechner Law\n Complexity Magnitude\n Modis and Panov Datasets\n Alternative Methods of Estimating Parameters\n Technological Innovations\n Combinatorial Behaviour\n References\n23 About the Singularity in Biological and Social Evolution\n Acknowledgement\n References\n24 The Transition to Global Society as a Singularity of Social Evolution\n Introduction\n Singularities and Phases of Social Evolution\n The Adaptive Phase of Social Evolution\n The Structural Phase of Social Evolution\n Life Cycle of Societies at the Structural Phase\n The Macro-evolutionary Diagram\n Acceleration or Cyclic Recurrence?\n The Rate of Social Evolution\n The Nature of the Global Singularity\n Conclusion\n References\n25 Evolution, the ‘Mechanism’ of Big History, Predicts the Near Singularity\n Introduction\n The Role of Evolution in Big History\n Big History and Consciousness\n In the Beginning\n Endosymbiosis Theory\n Cell–Cell Communication as the Basis for Physiologic Evolution\n Endosymbiosis, Natural Laws, and Consciousness\n The Cell as the First Niche Construction, Integrates Humans with the Environment\n Top-Down, Bottom-Up, Middle-Out\n Combined Epigenetic Inheritance and Phenotype as Agent Provides Biologic Scope to Big History\n Anthropic Principle Versus Being of the Cosmos\n Evolution, the Mechanism of Big History\n Conclusions\n Acknowledgement\n References\n26 How Singular Is the Twenty-First-Century Singularity?\n The Weber–Fechner Law\n Archimedes Singularity\n How Singular Is the Twenty-First-Century Singularity?\n Acknowledgement\n Appendix\n References\nConclusion\n27 Conclusion\n Preliminary Remarks\n Discussions on Definition\n Discussion on Evidence/Data\n Discussion on Models\n Discussion on Sequences\n Discussion on Implications\n On the Scenarios of Post-singular Megaevolution\n Discussion on Ontology/Epistemology\n Where Do We Go from Here?\n The Current Critical Transition in Big History with SETI Implications\n References