دانلود کتاب The Deutsche Bank Guide to Exchange-Rate Determination

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Introduction 4 Exchange Rate Determination in the Short Run 7 Currency Forecasting Using Technical Analysis 11 Sentiment and Positioning Indicators 21 Currency Options Market 22 Order Flow and the Determination of Exchange Rates 24 Investor Positioning and the Trend in Exchange Rates 27 Risk Appetite Shifts and Currency Trends 28 Exchange Rate Determination in the Long Run 31 Purchasing Power Parity 33 The Macroeconomic-Balance Approach to Long-Run Exchange-Rate Determination 42 The Real Long-Run Equilibrium Exchange Rate 43 Productivity Trends and Exchange Rates 46 Terms of Trade and Exchange Rates 50 Net International Investment and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate 51 Long-Term Cycles in Exchange Rates 53 Overshooting Exchange Rates 60 Exchange Rate Determination in the Medium Run 63 International Parity Conditions 65 Real Interest-Rate Differential Model 67 Forward-Rate Bias Strategy 72 Current-Account Imbalances and the Determination of Exchange Rates 77 Capital Flows and Exchange Rates 86 Mundell-Fleming Model 96 Monetary Approach 104 Portfolio-Balance Approach 108 Fiscal Policy 115 Economic Growth 119 Central-Bank Intervention 124 Anticipating Currency Crises in Emerging Markets 129 References 155