توضیحاتی در مورد کتاب :
این کتاب وضعیت کنونی اقتصاد یونان را ارزیابی میکند و چشمانداز توسعه و رشد آن را تا سال 2030 شناسایی میکند. تجزیه و تحلیل با یونان قرن نوزدهم آغاز میشود و به پیشفرضهای مکرر که منجر به تشکیل یک دولت وابسته شد و تلاشهای نافرجام مدرنسازی میشود. سپس کتاب به ابعاد ژئواستراتژیک کنونی و همچنین ساختار فعلی نهادها و فرهنگ در یونان می پردازد. بخش دوم تکامل پایداری، حکمرانی و فراگیری، و همچنین تکامل فرهنگ در جامعه یونان و بینشهایی را در مورد نمونه اولیه تولید ارائه میکند. بخش سوم کتاب مشتاقانه منتظر اتفاقاتی است که تا سال 2030 برای یونان در پیش است. این پیشزمینه نظری را برای دو سناریو ارائه میکند: سناریوی عادی (تجارت طبق روال معمول، از جمله اثرات همهگیری اخیر کووید-19) و سناریوی بهینه. (یک سناریوی طرفدار رشد شامل افزایش بهره وری کل عوامل از طریق اصلاحات ساختاری). در ارائه این سناریوها، کتاب موضوعاتی از تجزیه و تحلیل مقایسه ای بین یونان و منطقه یورو، تحولات شکاف تولید و تولید بالقوه، بدهی عمومی، رقابت پذیری، متغیرهای اساسی اقتصاد کلان، تجزیه و تحلیل دقیق سرمایه گذاری ها و رشد فراگیر را مورد بحث قرار می دهد.
فهرست مطالب :
Preface
Introduction
Contents
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I The Evolution of Economic History, Institutions and Cultural Background
1 A Brief Economic History of Repeated Defaults
1.1 Introduction
1.2 The Defaults
1.3 The Dependent State
References
2 The Institutional Evolution and the Failed Modernizing Attempts
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The Ottoman, the Central European Heritage and the Initial Formation of Extracting Institutions
2.3 The Development of Hierarchies in Historical Perspective
2.4 The Non-Diversification of Investment and Production in Historical Perspective
References
3 The Geostrategical Settings and the Systemic Risks
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The Geostrategical Settings
3.3 The National Power
3.4 The Systemic Risks
3.5 The Global and Domestic Consequences of Covid-19: The Systemic Risks
Appendix: Negative Episodes in Greece
Crises of Exogenous Origin
Crises of Endogenous Origin
References
4 The Formation of Idiosyncratic Structure of Institutions and Culture
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Optimum Structure of Institutions and Culture with First and Second-Best Theory Conditions
4.3 The Deviations from the Optimum Pattern on Institutions and Culture: Third-Best Theory Conditions
4.4 Idiosyncratic Institutions in the Greek Economy
4.4.1 The Distortion of the Relative Price of Capital/Labor Ratio
4.4.2 The Appropriation Rules and the Role of Elites
4.4.3 High Transaction Costs
4.4.4 Oligopolies
4.5 Idiosyncratic Cultural Traits in the Greek Economy
4.6 The Idiosyncratic Growth Prototype of the Greek Economy
References
Part II The Evolution of Sustainability, Governance, Inclusivity, Culture and Economic Growth in the Greek Economy
5 Sustainable Development
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The Attainment of Sustainable Development Goals
5.3 The Environment
5.4 The Renewable Energy Sources
5.5 The Natural Resources
5.6 The Population
5.7 Pandemics and Epidemics as Black Swans
References
6 Sustainable Governance
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Voice and Accountability
6.3 Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism
6.4 Government Effectiveness
6.5 Regulatory Quality
6.6 Rule of Law
6.7 Control of Corruption
References
7 Inclusivity
7.1 Introduction
7.2 The Concept of Inclusive Growth
7.3 Human Capital and Labor Market
7.3.1 Income
7.3.2 Employment and Unemployment
7.3.3 Gender Equality
7.4 Distribution of Income and Wealth
7.5 Poverty
7.6 Education
7.7 Covid-19 and Inclusivity
References
8 Human Behaviors
8.1 Introduction
8.2 The Social Environment
8.3 Political Trends in Society
8.4 Economic Attitudes in Society
8.5 Loss Aversion and the Other Cultural Dimensions in Greek Society
8.6 Covid-19 on Human Behaviour
References
9 Growth in the Greek Economy
9.1 Introduction
9.2 The Economic Evolution
9.3 Internal and External Balances
9.4 The Evolution of Structural Reforms
9.5 Competitiveness
9.6 Investments and FDI
9.7 The Banking System and the Credit-Less Recovery
9.8 Liquidity and Credit System
9.9 Entrepreneurship Development and Privatizations
9.10 The Issue of Debt
9.11 The Overburden of Taxation
9.12 The Covid-19 Recession
References
10 Insights of the Production Prototype Change During the Crisis (2008–2018)
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Structural Change in the Production System
10.3 The Distinction Between the Domestic and the Competitive and Internationalized Parts of the Greek Economy
10.4 Developments in the Key Figures in the Domestic and International Part of the Greek Economy
10.4.1 Gross Value Added and Investments
10.4.2 Employment and Productivity
10.4.3 Imports, Exports, and Trade Balance
10.5 The Technological Specialization of the Greek Economy Sectors
10.5.1 Production, Employment, Productivity, Investment, and Technological Specialization of the Sectors
10.5.2 Imports, Exports, and Technological Specialization of the Sectors
10.6 Skills Intensity in the Sectors of Greek Economy
10.7 The Structural Effects of Covid-19 on the Greek Economy
Appendix: Classification of Sectors
References
Part III The Long-Term Evolution of the Greek Economy
11 The Requirements for a Pro-growth Long-Term View
11.1 Introduction
11.2 The Endogenous Transformation from Idiosyncratic Stagnated to Optimal Pro-growth Model Through Institutional and Cultural Changes
11.2.1 Institutional Change
11.2.2 Cultural Changes
11.3 Total Factor Productivity and Reforms in the Greek Economy Until 2019
11.4 The Normal Scenario for the Greek Economy 2020–2030
11.4.1 Forecast Model
11.4.2 The Normal Scenario
11.5 Total Factor Productivity and Reforms: 2020–2030
11.6 The Optimal Pro-growth Scenario for the Greek Economy: 2020–2030
References
12 The Long-Term View of the Greek Economy Under the Normal and the Optimal Pro-growth Scenario: 2020–2030
12.1 Introduction
12.2 The End of Credit-Less Recovery
12.3 Eurozone and the Greek Economy 2020–2030
12.4 Output Gap and Potential Output
12.5 Public Debt and Economy
12.6 Competitiveness
12.7 Key Determinants of GDP
12.8 Investments
12.9 Inclusive Growth
References
Index
توضیحاتی در مورد کتاب به زبان اصلی :
This book assesses the current state of the Greek economy and detects its development and growth prospects up to 2030. The analysis begins with 19th century Greece, addressing the repeated defaults that led to the formation of a dependent state, and the failed modernizing attempts. Then the book addresses current geostrategic dimensions as well as the current structure of institutions and culture in Greece. The second part presents the evolution of sustainability, governance, and inclusivity, as well as the evolution of culture in Greek society and insights into the production prototype. The third part of the book looks forward to what lays ahead for Greece up to 2030. It presents the theoretical background for two scenarios: the normal scenario (business as usual, including the effects of the recent Covid-19 pandemic) and the optimal scenario (a pro-growth scenario including increases of Total Factor Productivity through structural reforms). In presenting these scenarios, the book discusses issues ranging from a comparative analysis between Greece and the Eurozone, the developments in output gap and potential output, public debt, competitiveness, basic macroeconomic variables, a detailed analysis on investments, and inclusive growth.