دانلود کتاب The failure of risk management: why it's broken and how to fix it

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Cover......Page 1
Title Page......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 9
About the Author......Page 13
Preface......Page 15
Acknowledgments......Page 19
Part One An Introduction to the Crisis......Page 21
Chapter 1 Healthy Skepticism for Risk Management......Page 23
A “Common Mode Failure”......Page 25
Key Definitions: Risk Management and Some Related Terms......Page 28
What Failure Means......Page 34
Scope and Objectives of This Book......Page 37
A Short and Entirely‐Too‐Superficial History of Risk......Page 41
Current State of Risk Management in the Organization......Page 45
Current Risks and How They Are Assessed......Page 46
Chapter 3 How Do We Know What Works?......Page 55
Anecdote: The Risk of Outsourcing Drug Manufacturing......Page 56
Why It\'s Hard to Know What Works......Page 60
An Assessment of Self‐Assessments......Page 64
Potential Objective Evaluations of Risk Management......Page 68
What We May Find......Page 77
Chapter 4 Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model......Page 81
A Simple One‐for‐One Substitution......Page 83
The Expert as the Instrument......Page 84
A Quick Overview of “Uncertainty Math”......Page 87
Establishing Risk Tolerance......Page 92
Supporting the Decision: A Return on Mitigation......Page 93
Making the Straw Man Better......Page 95
Part Two Why It\'s Broken......Page 99
Chapter 5 The “Four Horsemen” of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts to Prevent an Apocalypse......Page 101
Actuaries......Page 103
War Quants: How World War II Changed Risk Analysis Forever......Page 106
Economists......Page 110
Management Consulting: How a Power Tie and a Good Pitch Changed Risk Management......Page 116
Comparing the Horsemen......Page 123
Major Risk Management Problems to Be Addressed......Page 125
Chapter 6 An Ivory Tower of Babel: Fixing the Confusion about Risk......Page 129
The Frank Knight Definition......Page 131
Knight\'s Influence in Finance and Project Management......Page 134
A Construction Engineering Definition......Page 138
Risk as Expected Loss......Page 139
Defining Risk Tolerance......Page 141
Defining Probability......Page 148
Enriching the Lexicon......Page 151
Chapter 7 The Limits of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don\'t Know What We Think We Know about Uncertainty......Page 155
The Right Stuff: How a Group of Psychologists Might Save Risk Analysis......Page 157
Mental Math: Why We Shouldn\'t Trust the Numbers in Our Heads......Page 159
“Catastrophic” Overconfidence......Page 162
The Mind of “Aces”: Possible Causes and Consequences of Overconfidence......Page 170
Inconsistencies and Artifacts: What Shouldn\'t Matter Does......Page 175
Answers to Calibration Tests......Page 180
Chapter 8 Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn\'t Work......Page 183
A Few Examples of Scores and Matrices......Page 184
Does That Come in “Medium”?: Why Ambiguity Does Not Offset Uncertainty......Page 190
Unintended Effects of Scales: What You Don\'t Know Can Hurt You......Page 193
Different but Similar‐Sounding Methods and Similar but Different‐Sounding Methods......Page 203
Chapter 9 Bears, Swans and Other Obstacles to Improved Risk Management......Page 213
Algorithm Aversion and a Key Fallacy......Page 214
Algorithms versus Experts: Generalizing the Findings......Page 218
A Note about Black Swans......Page 223
Major Mathematical Misconceptions......Page 229
We\'re Special: The Belief That Risk Analysis Might Work, but Not Here......Page 237
Chapter 10 Where Even the Quants Go Wrong: Common and Fundamental Errors in Quantitative Models......Page 243
A Survey of Analysts Using Monte Carlos......Page 244
The Risk Paradox......Page 248
Financial Models and the Shape of Disaster: Why Normal Isn\'t So Normal......Page 256
Following Your Inner Cow: The Problem with Correlations......Page 263
The Measurement Inversion......Page 268
Is Monte Carlo Too Complicated?......Page 270
Part Three How to Fix It......Page 275
Chapter 11 Starting with What Works......Page 277
Speak the Language......Page 279
Getting Your Probabilities Calibrated......Page 286
Using Data for Initial Benchmarks......Page 292
Checking the Substitution......Page 300
Simple Risk Management......Page 305
Chapter 12 Improving the Model......Page 313
Empirical Inputs......Page 314
Adding Detail to the Model......Page 325
Advanced Methods for Improving Expert\'s Subjective Estimates......Page 332
Other Monte Carlo Tools......Page 335
Self‐Examinations for Modelers......Page 337
Chapter 13 The Risk Community: Intra‐ and Extra‐organizational Issues of Risk Management......Page 343
Getting Organized......Page 344
Managing the Model......Page 347
Incentives for a Calibrated Culture......Page 351
Extraorganizational Issues: Solutions beyond Your Office Building......Page 357
Practical Observations from Trustmark......Page 359
Final Thoughts on Quantitative Models and Better Decisions......Page 361
Additional Calibration Tests and Answers......Page 365
Index......Page 377
EULA......Page 387