دانلود کتاب The Future of Antarctica: Scenarios from Classical Geopolitics

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Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Praise for The Future of Antarctica
Contents
About the Authors
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Introduction
1.1 The Antarctic Treaty System: Responsive, Resilient—And Largely Successful
1.2 The Antarctic Treaty System: Fears for the Future?
1.3 Antarctic Futures and Scenarios
1.4 Antarctic Futures: A Multi-disciplinary Approach
1.5 Classical and Critical Geopolitics
1.6 Towards a Critical Realist Geopolitics?
1.7 What This Book is About
References
2 History of Antarctic Territorial Claims and Spatial Contestation
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The ‘Antarctic Problem’
2.3 Geopolitics and Resolving the ‘Antarctic Problem’
2.4 The Antarctic Treaty: Setting Aside Geopolitical Differences?
2.5 Geopolitics and the Future of Antarctica
References
3 Scenario Analysis and the Limits of Prediction
3.1 Overview
3.2 What Are Scenarios?
3.3 Ten Key Properties of Scenarios
3.4 Reality Check: Scenarios and Our Need to Predict
3.5 Plausibility and the ‘aha’ Moment
3.6 A Revised Model: Introducing the Zone of Plausibility
3.7 Dissecting Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity (TUNA)
3.8 Summary
References
4 Objectives, Approaches and Techniques
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Objectives, Approaches, and Techniques
4.3 Framing Before Reframing
4.4 Level 1—Define Your Strategic Objectives
4.5 Level 2—Identify Your General Approach/es
4.6 A Scenario Toolbox
4.7 Deductive Approaches: Intuitive, Archetypal, and Normative
4.8 Deductive (Intuitive) Approaches
4.9 Deductive (Archetype) Approaches
4.10 Deductive (Normative) Approaches
4.11 Inductive Approaches
4.12 Quantitative approaches
4.13 Hybrid approaches
4.14 Integrated approaches
4.15 Scoping approaches
4.16 Engagement approaches
4.17 Level 3—Select Your Specific Technique/s
4.18 The ‘Intuitive Logics 2 × 2’ Technique
4.18.1 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint
4.18.2 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon
4.18.3 Step 3: Identify the Key Driving Forces
4.18.4 Step 4: Distinguish Critical Uncertainties from Predetermined Elements
4.18.5 Step 5: Rank Critical Uncertainties by Importance and Uncertainty
4.18.6 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es
4.18.7 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix
4.18.8 Step 8: Develop the Scenario Narratives
4.18.9 Step 9: ‘Wind Tunnel Test’ Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice
4.19 Insights from the Process and Adding Depth: An Alternative to IL 2 × 2—Towards ‘IL 5’
4.20 Summary
References
5 Antarctic Geopolitics: Background
5.1 Overview
5.2 A Brief Recap: Geopolitics—Classical, Critical, and Other Approaches
5.3 Antarctica and Classical Geopolitical Analysis
5.4 Nine Themes for the Driving Forces of Antarctic Geopolitics
5.5 Challenges for the Scenario Planner!
5.6 Four Dynamics of Driving Forces
5.7 Pulling These Together: The ‘Dynamic Signature’ of a Driving Force
5.8 Nine Themes for Driving Forces
5.9 Summary
References
6 Militarisation of Antarctica
6.1 Introduction
6.2 History of Militarisation in Antarctica
6.3 Managing Militarisation Under the Antarctic Treaty 1959
6.4 Traditional Military/Strategic Threats in Antarctica
6.5 ‘Dual-Use’ Equipment in Antarctica
6.6 Summary
References
7 Antarctic Militarisation: Scenario Analysis
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint
7.3 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon
7.4 Step 3: Identify Driving Forces of Antarctic Militarisation
7.5 Step 4: Classify Driving Forces as Predetermined Elements or Critical Uncertainties
7.6 Step 5: Rank Driving Forces by Importance and Uncertainty
7.7 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es
7.8 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix
7.9 Summary
References
8 Antarctic Militarisation: Five Scenarios
8.1 Introduction
8.1.1 Scenario 1: Splendid Isolation
8.1.2 Scenario 2: Quarantine
8.1.3 Scenario 3: Stealth
8.1.4 Scenario 4: Cold War II
8.1.5 IL 5: A Fifth Scenario for Antarctic Militarisation
8.1.6 Scenario 5: Pressures Managed
8.2 Step 9: Wind Tunnel Test Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice
8.3 Summary
Reference
9 Scenario Analysis and the Classical View of Antarctic Geopolitics
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Geopolitics: The Intersection of Power, Authority, and Space
9.2.1 Power
9.2.2 Military Power
9.2.3 Scientific and Logistical Power
9.2.4 Authority
9.2.5 Space
9.3 Antarctica Through a Classical Geopolitical Lens
9.3.1 Power and International Law
9.3.2 Antarctica and ‘Space in Rivalry Between States’
9.4 Summary
References
10 Conclusion
10.1 Our Objectives
10.2 Our Findings: Geopolitical Scenario Analysis
10.3 Our Findings: Geopolitical Futures for Antarctica
References
Index