دانلود کتاب The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes

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THE MATHEMATICS OF NATURAL CATASTROPHES
PORTRAIT OF EDMOND HALLEY
PROLOGUE CHAOS AND CATASTROPHE
CHAPTER 1 A TAXONOMY OF NATURAL HAZARDS
1.1 Causality and Association
1.2 Extra-Terrestrial Hazards
1.3 Meteorological Hazards
1.4 Geological Hazards
1.5 Geomorphic Hazards
1.6 Hydrological Hazards
1.7 References
CHAPTER 2 A SENSE OF SCALE
2.1 Size Scales of Natural Hazards
2.2 Spatial Scales of Natural Hazards
2.3 References
CHAPTER 3 A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY
3.1 The Concept of Probability
3.2 The Meaning of Uncertainty
3.3 Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty
3.4 Probability Distributions
3.5 Addition of Probability Density Functions
3.6 References
CHAPTER 4 A MATTER OF TIME
4.1 Temporal Models of Natural Hazards
4.2 Long-term Data Records
4.3 Statistics of Extremes
4.4 References
CHAPTER 5 FORECASTING
5.1 Verification
5.2 Earthquake Indecision
5.3 Volcanic Eruption Traits
5.4 Tropical Cyclone Correlations
5.5 Flood Flows
5.6 References
CHAPTER 6 DECIDING TO WARN
6.1 Deterministic Expert Systems
6.2 Uncertainty in Expert Systems
6.3 Subjective Probability
6.4 The Elicitation of Expert Judgement
6.5 References
CHAPTER 7 A QUESTION OF DESIGN
7.1 Dynamic Defence Strategy
7.2 Wind and Wave Offshore Design
7.3 Earthquake Ground Motion
7.4 Seismic Hazard Evaluation
7.5 Earthquake Siting Decisions
7.6 References
CHAPTER 8 DAMAGE ESTIMATION
8.1 Earthquakes
8.2 Windstorms
8.3 Floods
8.4 Volcanic Eruptions
8.5 References
CHAPTER 9 CATASTROPHE COVER
9.1 The Socio-Economic Dimension
9.2 Principles of Insurance Pricing
9.3 Quantification of Insurance Risk
9.4 Simulating Multiple Futures
9.5 References
CHAPTER 10 FINANCIAL ISSUES
10.1 Financial and Physical Crashes
10.2 Catastrophe Bonds
10.3 CAT Calls
10.4 References
CHAPTER 11 THE THIRD MILLENNIUM
11.1 Natural Hazard Mortality
11.2 Hazard Coupling with the Environment
11.3 Computer Technology for Catastrophe Management
11.4 The New Age
11.5 References
EPILOGUE THE TWILIGHT OF PROBABILITY
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