دانلود کتاب Will You Be Alive 10 Years from Now?: And Numerous Other Curious Questions in Probability

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Contents\nPreface\nIntroduction: Classic Puzzles from the Past\n I.1 A Gambling Puzzle of Gombaud and Pascal\n I.2 Galileo’s Dice Problem\n I.3 Another Gombaud-Pascal Puzzle\n I.4 Gambler’s Ruin and De Moivre\n I.5 Monte Carlo Simulation of Gambler’s Ruin\n I.6 Newton’s Probability Problem\n I.7 A Dice Problem That Would Have Surprised Newton\n I.8 A Coin-Flipping Problem\n I.9 Simpson’s Paradox, Radio-Direction Finding, and the Spaghetti Problem\nChallenge Problems\n1\r Breaking Sticks\n 1.1 The Problem\n 1.2 Theoretical Analysis\n 1.3 Computer Simulation\n2.\r The Twins\n 2.1 The Problem\n 2.2 Theoretical Analysis\n 2.3 Computer Simulation\n3.\r Steve’s Elevator Problem\n 3.1 The Problem\n 3.2 Theoretical Analysis by Shane Henderson\n 3.3 Computer Simulation\n4.\r Three Gambling Problems Newton Would “Probably” Have Liked\n 4.1 The Problems\n 4.2 Theoretical Analysis 1\n 4.3 Computer Simulation 1\n 4.4 Theoretical Analysis 2\n 4.5 Computer Simulation 2\n 4.6 Theoretical Analysis 3\n5. Big Quotients — P\rart 1\n 5.1 The Problem\n 5.2 Theoretical Analysis\n 5.3 Computer Simulation\n6.\r Two Ways to Proofread\n 6.1 The Problem\n 6.2 Theoretical Analysis\n7.\r Chain Letters That Never End\n 7.1 The Problem\n 7.2 Theoretical Analysis\n8.\r Bingo Befuddlement\n 8.1 The Problem\n 8.2 Computer Simulation\n9.\r Is Dreidel Fair?\n 9.1 The Problem\n 9.2 Computer Simulation\n10.\r Hollywood Thrills\n 10.1 The Problem\n 10.2 Theoretical Analysis\n11.\r The Problem of the n-Liars\n 11.1 The Problem\n 11.2 Theoretical Analysis\n 11.3 Computer Simulation\n12.\r The Inconvenience of a Law\n 12.1 The Problem\n 12.2 Theoretical Analysis\n13.\r A Puzzle for When the Super Bowl is a Blowout\n 13.1 The Problem\n 13.2 Theoretical Analysis\n14.\r Darts and Ballistic Missiles\n 14.1 The Problem\n 14.2 Theoretical Analysis\n15.\r Blood Testing\n 15.1 The Problem\n 15.2 Theoretical Analysis\n16. Big Quotients \r— Part 2\n 16.1 The Problem\n 16.2 Theoretical Analysis\n17.\r To Test or Not to Test?\n 17.1 The Problem\n 17.2 Theoretical Analysis\n18.\r Average Distances on a Square\n 18.1 The Problem(s)\n 18.2 Theoretical Analyses\n 18.3 Computer Simulations\n19.\r When Will the Last One Fail?\n 19.1 The Problem\n 19.2 Theoretical Analyses\n20.\r Who’s Ahead?\n 20.1 The Problem\n 20.2 Theoretical Analysis\n21.\r Plum Pudding\n 21.1 The Problem\n 21.2 Computer Simulation\n 21.3 Theoretical Analysis\n22.\r Ping-Pong, Squash, and Difference Equations\n 22.1 Ping-Pong Math\n 22.2 Squash Math Is Harder!\n23.\r Will You Be Alive 10 Years from Now?\n 23.1 The Problem\n 23.2 Theoretical Analysis\n24.\r Chickens in Boxes\n 24.1 The Problem (and Some Warm-ups, Too)\n 24.2 Theoretical Analysis\n25.\r Newcomb’s Paradox\n 25.1 Some History\n 25.2 Decision Principles in Conflict\nChallenge Problem Solutions\nTechnical Note on MATLAB®’s Random Number Generator\nAcknowledgments\nIndex