دانلود کتاب WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2012

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WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2012 ......Page 1
Foreword ......Page 5
Acknowledgements......Page 7
Table of Contents......Page 16
Chapter 3 - Oil market outlook......Page 24
Figure 1.1: Average IEA crude oil price ......Page 60
Figure 1.2: Ratio of average natural gas and coal prices to crude oil prices in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 61
Global energy trends by scenario......Page 68
Primary energy demand......Page 70
Figure 2.3: World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 72
Figure 2.4: World primary energy demand per unit of GDP and per capita in the New Policies Scenario in selected regions and countries ......Page 73
Figure 2.5: Non-OECD primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 74
Figure 2.6: Share of China and India in net increase in global primary energy demand by fuel and CO2 emissions in the New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035 ......Page 75
Figure 2.7: OECD primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 78
Figure 2.8: The global energy system, 2010 ......Page 80
Figure 2.9: Fossil fuel production in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2010 and 2035 ......Page 83
Box 2.1: How have the New Policies Scenario projections changed since WEO-2011? ......Page 85
Economic implications......Page 87
Figure 2.12: Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by fuel ......Page 88
Figure 2.13: Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by fuel for top 25 countries, 2011 ......Page 89
Figure 2.14: Spending on net imports of fossil fuels in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 91
Diverging trends in import dependency......Page 93
Figure 2.16: Net oil and gas import dependency in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 94
The impact of unconventional gas......Page 95
Figure 2.18: Share of inter-regional oil and gas trade through key choke points in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 97
Primary oil demand trends......Page 100
Table 3.2: Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario......Page 103
Figure 3.3: World oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 106
Figure 3.4: World transport oil demand by sub-sector in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 107
Box 3.2: Cars everywhere, but where will they go? ......Page 108
Special topic: heavy freight road transport......Page 109
Figure 3.7: Incremental road freight growth by region since 2000 in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 110
Figure 3.8: Freight truck sales and stock by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 111
Figure 3.9: World freight truck oil demand in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 112
Figure 3.10: Alternative fuel use by freight trucks in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 113
Reserves and resources......Page 115
Figure 3.12: Proven oil reserves in the top 15 countries, end-2011 ......Page 116
Figure 3.13: Ultimately technically recoverable resources and cumulative production by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 117
Figure 3.14: Liquid fuels schematic......Page 118
Figure 3.15: World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario......Page 121
Figure 3.17: World oil production by quality in the New Policies Scenario......Page 122
Figure 3.18: United States oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 124
Figure 3.19: Change in oil production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario, 2011-2035 ......Page 132
Trade......Page 137
Investment in oil and gas......Page 138
Figure 3.22: Worldwide upstream oil and gas investment and the IEA Upstream Investment Cost Index ......Page 141
Chapter 5 - Coal market outlook......Page 25
Gas demand trends......Page 144
Table 4.2: Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 146
Figure 4.3: Indicative economics of LNG exports from the United States ......Page 148
Sectoral trends......Page 150
Figure 4.5: Unconventional gas production in leading countries in the New Policies Scenario, 2035 ......Page 160
Box 4.4: The economics of producing shale gas at $2/MBtu ......Page 161
Figure 4.7: Relationship between break-even price (gas price needed to recover well costs) and the liquid content of the gas produced ......Page 162
Figure 4.8: World unconventional gas production by type and scenario/case ......Page 163
Inter-regional trade......Page 164
Figure 4.10: Net inter-regional natural gas trade flows between major regions in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 167
Figure 4.11: World short-term LNG trade, 2000-2011 ......Page 171
Overview of global demand trends......Page 174
Box 5.1: Boom in global coal use continues apace ......Page 176
Figure 5.3: Incremental coal demand in China and the rest of the world by major sector in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 179
Figure 5.4: Share of key regions in global coal demand in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 180
Reserves and resources......Page 181
Overview of global supply trends......Page 182
Table 5.4: Coal production by type and scenario ......Page 183
Figure 5.8: Share of major hard coal importers in global inter-regional trade in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 188
Figure 5.9: China’s hard coal net trade in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 189
Figure 5.10: United States hard coal net trade in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 190
Developments in international pricing......Page 192
Figure 5.12: Average fortnightly steam coal prices in selected ports ......Page 193
Figure 5.13: Average FOB supply cash costs and prices for internationally traded steam coal, 2011 ......Page 195
Chapter 6 - Power sector outlook......Page 26
Figure 6.1: World electricity supply and demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 199
Capacity retirements and additions......Page 201
Figure 6.3: Power generation gross capacity additions and retirements in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 ......Page 202
Figure 6.4: World net incremental generation and capacity by type in the New Policies Scenario, 2010-2035 ......Page 203
Fossil-fuelled generation......Page 206
Figure 6.6: Gas-fired electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 207
Renewables......Page 209
Transmission and distribution......Page 210
Figure 6.10: Annual average investment in T&D infrastructure in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 213
CO2 emissions......Page 214
Regional trends......Page 215
Figure 6.13: Japan electricity generation by source in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 217
Figure 6.14: Renewables-based electricity generation by source and share of total generation in the European Union in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 218
Figure 6.15: Power generating capacity additions by source in China and share of global additions in New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 ......Page 219
Focus on electricity prices......Page 220
Figure 6.18: Average electricity price to households in selected European countries by cost component, excluding taxes, 2011 ......Page 221
Figure 6.19: Change in end-user prices by type of consumer and selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 2011-2035 ......Page 222
Figure 6.20: Wholesale electricity prices by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 225
Figure 6.21: Average household electricity prices by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 226
Figure 6.22: Total cost per capita of residential sector electricity in selected countries, and share of household income spent on electricity ......Page 227
Chapter 8 - Climate change mitigation and the 450 Scenario......Page 27
Figure 7.2: World average annual renewables-based capacity additions by type in the New Policies Scenario......Page 235
Focus on bioenergy......Page 237
Figure 7.4: Share of solid biomass supply for biofuels and power generation by feedstock in the New Policies Scenario......Page 242
Hydropower......Page 243
Wind power......Page 244
Figure 7.7: Solar PV gross capacity additions, average unit cost, and resulting investment requirements in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 246
Production costs......Page 249
Figure 7.9: Indicative biofuels production costs and spot oil prices ......Page 250
Figure 7.10: Global renewable energy subsidies by source in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 252
Figure 7.12: Global subsidies to renewables-based electricity generation and biofuels by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 253
Integration of variable renewables into the electricity system......Page 254
Benefits of renewables......Page 256
Figure 7.15: CO2 emissions savings from greater use of renewables, relative to 2010 fuel mix in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 257
Figure 8.1: Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel and global GDP growth ......Page 261
Figure 8.2: Energy-related CO2 emissions per capita by region, 2011 ......Page 262
Table 8.1: World anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions by scenario ......Page 264
Table 8.2: Probability of staying below a specified temperature threshold by scenario ......Page 265
Primary energy demand and electricity generation in the 450 Scenario......Page 267
Figure 8.6: Electricity generation from low-carbon technologies and share by scenario, 2010 and 2035 ......Page 268
Figure 8.7: Global energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario ......Page 271
Figure 8.8: Global CO2 emissions reduction in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario in global road transport ......Page 272
Figure 8.9: Per-capita emissions and total emissions by region ......Page 273
Table 8.3: Global air pollution by scenario ......Page 276
Figure 8.11: Potential CO2 emissions from proven fossil-fuel reserves at the end of 2011 by region......Page 278
Emissions lock-in......Page 279
Figure 8.13: Energy-related CO2 emissions from locked-in infrastructure in 2011 and in the 450 Scenario in OECD countries ......Page 280
Figure 8.14: Energy-related CO2 emissions from locked-in infrastructure in 2011 and in the 450 Scenario in non-OECD countries ......Page 281
Figure 8.15: Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the 450 Scenario and from locked-in infrastructure ......Page 283
Chapter 9 - Energy efficiency: the current state of play......Page 28
Figure 9.1: Global energy intensity average annual growth rates, 1971-2010 ......Page 290
Figure 9.2: Energy intensities by regions, 1980 and 2010 ......Page 291
Existing policies......Page 292
The outlook for energy efficiency......Page 300
Figure 9.5: Savings in primary energy due to energy efficiency in the New Policies Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario by region, 2035 ......Page 304
Role in reducing CO2 emissions......Page 307
Untapped economically viable potential in the New Policies Scenario......Page 308
Figure 9.9: Utilised long-term energy efficiency economic potential in the New Policies Scenario, 2011-2035 ......Page 309
Figure 9.10: Average annual increase in energy efficiency investment in the New Policies Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario ......Page 311
Box 9.5: How much money is currently flowing into energy efficiency? ......Page 313
Figure 9.12: Investment in energy efficiency by country and region, 2011 ......Page 314
Chapter 11 - Unlocking energy efficiency at the sectoral level......Page 29
Figure 10.1: Representation of energy efficiency by end-use sector in the World Energy Model as considered in the Efficient World Scenario ......Page 317
Figure 10.2: Efficient World Scenario methodology ......Page 319
Trends by fuel......Page 321
Figure 10.4: Reduction in global oil demand in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario ......Page 322
Figure 10.5: Reduction in electricity demand by region in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario ......Page 323
Figure 10.7: Reduction in global natural gas demand in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario ......Page 324
Energy prices......Page 325
Figure 10.9: Fuel import bills in selected countries by fuel and scenario ......Page 328
Implications for the global economy......Page 331
Box 10.1: Assessing the impact of the Efficient World Scenario on global economic growth ......Page 332
Figure 10.12: Changes in value-added by sector and region in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario in 2035 ......Page 333
Energy-related CO2 emissions......Page 335
Figure 10.15: Cumulative efficiency-related CO2 emissions savings in the Efficient World Scenario relative to New Policies Scenario by sector and region ......Page 336
The role of energy efficiency in increasing energy access......Page 339
The balance of sectoral opportunities......Page 346
Trends by sub-sector......Page 352
Figure 11.3: Change in energy demand in the residential sector in the Efficient World Scenario and the New Policies Scenario from 2010 to 2035 by end-use ......Page 353
Techno-economic potential and policy framework......Page 356
Table 11.3: Global industry energy demand by fuel and energy-related CO2 emissions in the Efficient World Scenario......Page 359
Figure 11.6: Fuel savings in the transport sector in the Efficient World Scenario ......Page 365
Trends by sub-sector......Page 367
Figure 11.9: Energy savings in road transport in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario ......Page 368
Box 11.4: The value of smart grids ......Page 371
Figure 11.11: Coal-fired capacity by technology in the Efficient World Scenario ......Page 374
Chapter 12 - Pathways to energy efficiency......Page 30
World......Page 378
Table 12.1b: Global economic and environmental benefits......Page 379
Figure 12.1f: Global energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario ......Page 380
United States......Page 382
Table 12.2b: United States economic and environmental benefits......Page 383
Figure 12.2f: United States energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario ......Page 384
European Union......Page 386
Table 12.3b: European Union economic and environmental benefits......Page 387
Figure 12.3f: European Union energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario ......Page 388
Japan......Page 390
Table 12.4b: Japan’s economic and environmental benefits......Page 391
Figure 12.4f: Japan’s energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario ......Page 392
China......Page 394
Table 12.5b: China’s economic and environmental benefits......Page 395
Figure 12.5f: China’s energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario ......Page 396
India......Page 398
Table 12.6b: India’s economic and environmental benefits......Page 399
Figure 12.6f: India’s energy demand and savings in the residential sector in the Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario ......Page 400
Chapter 13 - Iraq today: energy and the economy......Page 31
Iraq’s energy sector......Page 406
Figure 13.2: GDP per capita for selected countries, 2011 ......Page 407
Overview of energy supply......Page 408
Box 13.1: Breaking through the historical ceiling on Iraq’s oil supply ......Page 409
Figure 13.5: Iraq average daily oil production and transportation, June 2012 ......Page 410
Figure 13.6: Average refinery product slate in Iraq compared to the United States, 2011 ......Page 412
Figure 13.7: Iraq monthly gas production and transportation, June 2012 ......Page 413
Overview of energy demand......Page 415
Figure 13.10: Evolution of the energy mix in Iraq and the Middle East ......Page 416
Figure 13.11: Iraq domestic energy balance, 2010 ......Page 417
Figure 13.12: Iraq difference between gross installed generation capacity and available peak capacity, 2011 ......Page 418
Figure 13.13: Iraq source and reliability of electricity supply by governorate, 2011 ......Page 420
The economy......Page 421
Figure 13.15: Iraq monthly oil export revenues by route ......Page 422
Legal and institutional framework......Page 423
Figure 13.17: Iraq main government institutions related to the energy sector ......Page 428
Environment and water......Page 430
Figure 13.19: Variations in Iraq’s GDP growth by scenario ......Page 433
Chapter 15 - Iraq: fuelling future reconstruction and growth......Page 32
Figure 14.1: Iraq main hydrocarbon basins and fields ......Page 439
Figure 14.2: Iraq oil reserves by field, end-2011 ......Page 441
Figure 14.3: Iraq production outlook to 2020 in context ......Page 445
Figure 14.4: Northern Iraq oil and gas fields and infrastructure ......Page 449
Figure 14.5: Wells by type and rig count required in the Central Scenario ......Page 450
Crude oil conversion and bringing oil to market......Page 451
Figure 14.7: Southern Iraq oil and gas fields and infrastructure ......Page 453
Figure 14.8: Reservoir pressure and recovery factors prior to and after the start of water injection at the Rumaila and Kirkuk fields ......Page 455
Figure 14.9: Net water requirement in southern Iraq oil fields by source in the Central Scenario ......Page 456
Figure 14.11: Iraq associated gas processing capacity additions and flaring reduction in the Central Scenario ......Page 460
Figure 14.12: Iraq non-associated gas production by region in the Central Scenario and High Case ......Page 462
Figure 14.13: Iraq oil and gas investment in the Central Scenario ......Page 464
Figure 14.14: Average oil and gas project preparation and completion times in the Middle East ......Page 465
Overview of energy demand trends......Page 468
Figure 15.2: Iraq total primary energy demand by fuel in the Central Scenario ......Page 470
Figure 15.4: Energy intensity in selected countries in the Central Scenario ......Page 471
Electricity demand......Page 472
Figure 15.6: Iraq net generation capacity available at peak and capacity required to meet peak demand in the Central Scenario ......Page 473
Electricity generation......Page 474
Box 15.1: Iraq near-term surge in power provision ......Page 475
Figure 15.9: Iraq electricity generation by fuel and overall efficiency of power generation in the Central Scenario ......Page 477
Figure 15.10: Levelised cost of base-load plants with international fuel prices in 2020 (Central Scenario) and current domestic fuel prices in Iraq ......Page 479
Investment in the power sector......Page 481
What is the potential cost of maintaining fossil-fuel subsidies in Iraq? ......Page 483
Transport......Page 484
Figure 15.14: Iraq PLDV ownership and oil demand in transport in the Central Scenario ......Page 485
Industry......Page 486
Figure 15.16: Iraq domestic energy balance in the Central Scenario, 2035 ......Page 487
Energy-related emissions......Page 489
Water use......Page 490
High Case......Page 491
Chapter 17 - Water for energy......Page 33
The Central Scenario......Page 496
Figure 16.2: Oil production and export revenue as a share of GDP in selected countries in the Central Scenario, 2011 and 2035 ......Page 497
Figure 16.3: Iraq annual average investment in energy supply infrastructure in the Central Scenario ......Page 498
Figure 16.4: Iraq labour force and estimated direct oil sector employment in the Central Scenario ......Page 499
The Central Scenario......Page 504
Figure 16.7: Iraq oil balance in the Central Scenario ......Page 505
Figure 16.8: Iraq oil balance in the High Case ......Page 508
Iraq’s impact on international gas markets......Page 510
Figure 16.10: Growth in natural gas production in selected countries in the Central Scenario ......Page 511
Figure 16.11: Iraq gas balance in the Central Scenario ......Page 512
Figure 16.12: Indicative delivered supply costs and prices for Iraq gas export, 2020 ......Page 515
Figure 16.13: Natural gas production and export in the High Case and the Delayed Case ......Page 516
Facing a more water-constrained future......Page 520
Box 17.1: Energy for water......Page 522
Figure 17.3: Water use for primary energy production ......Page 525
Figure 17.4: Water use for electricity generation by cooling technology ......Page 528
Table 17.3: Examples of water impacts on energy production ......Page 531
Outlook for water requirements for energy production......Page 532
Figure 17.7: Global water use for energy production in the New Policies Scenario by fuel and power generation type ......Page 534
Figure 17.8: Water intensity of energy production for selected regions in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 535
China......Page 536
Figure 17.10: Water use for energy production in China in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 537
Figure 17.11: Renewable water resources per capita and distribution of water-intensive energy production by type in India ......Page 540
United States......Page 541
Figure 17.13: Water use for energy production in the United States in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 542
How serious is the water constraint?......Page 545
Chapter 1 - Understanding the scenarios......Page 34
Figure 18.1: Countries with the largest population without access to electricity, 2010 ......Page 551
Figure 18.2: Countries with the largest population relying on traditional use of biomass for cooking, 2010 ......Page 552
Access to clean cooking facilities......Page 555
Energy for All Case......Page 556
Figure 18.5: Average annual investment in modern energy access in selected regions, 2011-2030 ......Page 557
Figure 18.6: Additional impact of the Energy for All Case compared with the New Policies Scenario ......Page 558
Figure 18.7: Energy development framework ......Page 560
Box 18.2: Areas for potential further development of the EDI ......Page 561
Figure 18.9: Energy Development Index country results, 2010 (and 2002) ......Page 563
Figure 18.10: Comparison between the new Energy Development Index and the Human Development Index in 2010 ......Page 565
Table 1.1: Definitions and objectives of the WEO-2012 scenarios ......Page 53
Table 1.2: Real GDP growth assumptions by region ......Page 55
Population......Page 57
Table 1.4: Fossil-fuel import price assumptions by scenario ......Page 59
Technology......Page 64
Chapter 6 - Power sector outlook......Page 35
Table 2.1: World primary energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario ......Page 69
Table 2.2: World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 71
Table 2.3: World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 76
Table 2.4: Fossil-fuel reserves and resources by region and type, end-2011 ......Page 82
US developments redefining the global energy map......Page 92
Table 3.1: Oil and total liquids demand by scenario ......Page 101
Production prospects......Page 119
Table 3.4: Oil production and oil and liquids supply by type and scenario ......Page 120
Table 3.5: Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 125
Table 3.6: OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 133
Table 3.7: Oil and gas industry investment by company ......Page 139
Table 3.8: Cumulative investment in oil and gas supply infrastructure by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 ......Page 142
Regional trends......Page 145
Table 4.3: Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end-2011 ......Page 152
Gas production prospects......Page 154
Table 4.5: Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 156
Table 4.6: Inter-regional natural gas net trade in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 165
The pricing of internationally traded gas......Page 168
Table 5.1: Coal demand by region and scenario ......Page 175
Regional trends......Page 177
Table 5.3: Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 178
Regional trends......Page 184
Table 5.6: Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 186
Table 5.7: Inter-regional hard coal trade in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 187
Table 5.8: Selected Indian foreign direct investment in coal supply projects ......Page 191
Electricity demand......Page 198
Electricity supply......Page 200
Table 6.3: Cumulative capacity retirements by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 ......Page 204
Table 6.4: Cumulative gross capacity additions by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 ......Page 205
Table 6.5: Investment in electricity-supply infrastructure by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, 2012-2035 ......Page 212
Chapter 11 - Unlocking energy efficiency at the sectoral level......Page 36
Table 7.1: Total primary demand for renewable energy by region and scenario ......Page 233
Table 7.2: World renewable energy use by type and scenario ......Page 234
Table 7.3: Renewables-based electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 236
Table 7.4: Ethanol and biodiesel consumption by region in the New Policies Scenario ......Page 239
Solar photovoltaics......Page 245
Table 9.1: Overview of key energy efficiency policies that are currently in place by country/region and sector ......Page 294
Barriers to energy efficiency deployment......Page 298
Table 9.3: Key energy efficiency assumptions in major countries/regions in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios ......Page 303
Table 9.4: Energy demand and savings due to efficiency measures in the New Policies Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario by end-use sector ......Page 306
Energy markets in the Efficient World Scenario......Page 320
Energy trade......Page 326
Investment and fuel savings......Page 330
Table 10.4: Air pollution by region and sector ......Page 338
Table 11.1: Summary of key policies by sector in the Efficient World Scenario......Page 347
Outlook......Page 349
Outlook......Page 364
Table 11.5: Installed capacity, fuel consumption and electricity generation in the Efficient World Scenario ......Page 373
Chapter 16 - Implications of Iraq’s energy development......Page 37
Table 12.1c: World final energy consumption......Page 381
Table 12.2c: United States final energy consumption......Page 385
Table 12.3c: European Union final energy consumption......Page 389
Table 12.4c: Japan’s final energy consumption......Page 393
Table 12.5c: China’s final energy consumption......Page 397
Table 12.6c: India’s final energy consumption......Page 401
Table 13.1: Contracts awarded by federal authorities for hydrocarbon exploration and development ......Page 425
Box 13.4: Overview of the Iraq Central Scenario and cases ......Page 432
Table 13.3: Main assumptions for Iraq in the Central Scenario ......Page 435
Table 14.1: Iraq oil resources by region and super-giant field ......Page 440
Table 14.2: Indicative oil development and production costs in selected countries ......Page 442
Table 14.3: Iraq oil production by region in the Central Scenario and the High Case ......Page 447
Production......Page 458
Table 14.5: Iraq gas production by region in the Central Scenario and the High Case ......Page 459
Table 15.1: Iraq primary energy demand by fuel and scenario ......Page 469
Table 15.2: Capital costs, efficiency, and construction times for the main types of new generation technologies in Iraq ......Page 476
Economic development in the High and the Delayed Cases......Page 502
Chapter 6 - Power sector outlook......Page 38
Water for energy linkages......Page 523
Table 17.2: Power plant cooling system trade-offs ......Page 527
Table 17.4: Global water use for energy production in the New Policies Scenario by region ......Page 533
Global status of modern energy access......Page 550
Access to electricity......Page 553
Box 3.1: The economic implications of runaway oil-demand growth in Saudi Arabia ......Page 104
Box 3.3: The rise and rise of light tight oil ......Page 126
Box 3.4: Arctic waters: the final frontier? ......Page 128
Box 3.5: Brazil’s oil boom gathers pace ......Page 130
Box 3.6: Global oil refining faces a major shake-out ......Page 140
Box 4.1: Gas pricing reform in China ......Page 149
Box 4.2: USGS conventional oil and gas resource assessment updated ......Page 153
Box 4.3: New finds boost hopes for gas production in East Africa ......Page 158
Box 5.2: South Africa or southern Africa? ......Page 185
Investment......Page 211
Box 6.2: Implications of growing renewables shares for power market design ......Page 223
Chapter 14 - Iraq oil and gas resources and supply potential......Page 39
Box 7.1: Improvements to the World Energy Model: the bioenergy supply and trade module ......Page 241
Box 7.3: Indirect land-use change and the European Union’s biofuels policy ......Page 258
Box 8.1: Extreme weather events and the energy sector ......Page 266
Box 8.2: The relationship between the 450 and Efficient World Scenarios ......Page 282
Introduction......Page 288
Box 9.2: Lessons from Japan’s energy-saving “Setsuden” campaign......Page 296
Box 9.3: The importance of effective implementation......Page 297
Box 9.4: Decomposing the role of energy efficiency in curbing energy demand ......Page 301
Box 10.2: How large is the rebound effect? ......Page 334
Box 11.1: Determining the cost-effective efficiency potential of appliances in the Efficient World Scenario ......Page 355
Box 11.2: Types of energy efficiency improvements in industry ......Page 357
Box 11.3: Modal shift and behavioural change in transport energy efficiency ......Page 366
Box 11.5: The potential of combined heat and power ......Page 372
Box 13.2: Technical service contracts and production-sharing contracts ......Page 424
Security......Page 429
Box 13.5: Strategic thinking for Iraq’s energy sector ......Page 434
Box 14.1: Outlook for oil production in the KRG area ......Page 448
Water requirements......Page 454
Box 14.3: Basrah Gas Company ......Page 461
List of spotlights......Page 40
Box 15.2: The role of renewables in Iraq ......Page 478
Measuring the value of changes in the power sector......Page 482
Box 16.1: Gaining local benefits from Iraq’s energy investment boom ......Page 501
Box 16.2: Crude quality and marketing options ......Page 506
Box 17.2: Water requirements for concentrating solar power ......Page 529
Box 18.1: Brazil’s Luz Para Todos (“Light for All”) programme ......Page 554
Box 18.3: Africa: resource rich but modern energy poor ......Page 564
What is the biggest source of uncertainty for energy prospects? ......Page 56
Are we on track to achieve the targets in the UN Sustainable Energy for All initiative? ......Page 77
Are we finding enough crude oil to sustain production? ......Page 123
Where will cheap American gas end up? ......Page 147
Other renewables for electricity and heat......Page 247
What is the role of rare earths in climate change mitigation? ......Page 269
Investment in energy efficiency......Page 310
Will improved energy efficiency be good for the oil-exporting countries? ......Page 329
Why invest in spare oil production capacity? ......Page 509
What is the potential impact of new energy access commitments? ......Page 549
Executive Summary......Page 41
PART A - GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS......Page 49
Chapter 1 - Understanding the scenarios......Page 51
Defining the scenarios......Page 52
Economic growth......Page 54
Energy prices......Page 58
CO2 prices......Page 62
Chapter 2 - Energy trends to 2035......Page 67
Energy supply and trade......Page 81
Energy-related CO2 emissions......Page 86
The direction of oil trade and supply security......Page 96
Chapter 3 - Oil market outlook......Page 99
Regional trends......Page 102
Sectoral trends......Page 105
Chapter 4 - Natural gas market outlook......Page 143
Reserves and resources......Page 151
Focus on prospects for unconventional gas......Page 159
Investment......Page 172
Chapter 5 - Coal market outlook......Page 173
Cost and investment developments......Page 194
Chapter 6 - Power sector outlook......Page 197
Nuclear power......Page 208
Chapter 7 - Renewable energy outlook......Page 229
Recent developments......Page 230
Outlook for renewable energy by scenario......Page 232
Investment......Page 248
Subsidies to renewables......Page 251
Chapter 8 - Climate change mitigation and the 450 Scenario......Page 259
Recent developments......Page 260
Comparison to other scenarios......Page 263
Energy-related emissions and abatement......Page 270
Benefits of the 450 Scenario......Page 275
Potential CO2 emissions in fossil-fuel reserves......Page 277
PART B - FOCUS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY......Page 285
Chapter 9 - Energy efficiency: the current state of play......Page 287
The current status of energy efficiency......Page 289
Trends by region......Page 302
Trends by sector......Page 305
Chapter 10 - A blueprint for an energy-efficient world......Page 315
Methodology and assumptions......Page 316
Local pollution......Page 337
Building the Efficient World Scenario: a blueprint for savings......Page 340
Chapter 11 - Unlocking energy efficiency at the sectoral level......Page 345
Techno-economic potential and policy framework......Page 348
Outlook......Page 358
Trends by sub-sector......Page 360
Techno-economic potential and policy framework......Page 362
Techno-economic potential and policy framework......Page 369
Outlook......Page 370
How to read the profiles......Page 375
PART C - IRAQ ENERGY OUTLOOK......Page 403
Chapter 13 - Iraq today: energy and the economy......Page 405
Projecting future developments......Page 431
Chapter 14 - Iraq oil and gas resources and supply potential......Page 437
Reserves and resources......Page 438
Production......Page 443
Reserves and resources......Page 457
Oil and gas investment......Page 463
Chapter 15 - Iraq: fuelling future reconstruction and growth......Page 467
Transmission and distribution......Page 480
Buildings and other sectors......Page 488
Delayed Case......Page 492
Chapter 16 - Implications of Iraq’s energy development......Page 495
Iraq’s oil market impact in the High and Delayed Cases......Page 507
Iraq’s impact on international oil markets......Page 503
PART D - SPECIAL TOPICS......Page 517
Chapter 17 - Water for energy......Page 519
Primary energy production......Page 524
Electricity generation......Page 526
The vulnerability of energy to water constraints......Page 530
India......Page 539
Canada......Page 543
Chapter 18 - Measuring progress towards energy for all......Page 547
Introduction......Page 548
Energy development framework......Page 559
Results from the Energy Development Index......Page 562
ANNEXES ......Page 567
Annex A - Scenario projections......Page 569
World......Page 570
OECD......Page 574
OECD Americas......Page 578
United States......Page 582
OECD Europe......Page 586
European Union......Page 590
OECD Asia Oceania......Page 594
Japan......Page 598
Non-OECD......Page 602
E. Europe/Eurasia......Page 606
Russia......Page 610
Non-OECD Asia......Page 614
China......Page 618
India......Page 622
Africa......Page 626
Latin America......Page 630
Brazil......Page 634
Middle East......Page 638
Iraq......Page 642
Annex B - Policies and measures by scenario......Page 647
Cross-cutting policy assumptions by scenario for selected regions......Page 648
Power sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions......Page 650
Transport sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions......Page 652
Industry sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions......Page 654
Buildings sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in selected regions......Page 656
Units......Page 659
General conversion factors for energy......Page 660
Definitions......Page 661
Regional and country groupings......Page 667
Abbreviations and Acronyms......Page 669
Chapter 2 - Energy projections to 2035......Page 673
Chapter 3 - Oil market outlook......Page 674
Chapter 5 - Coal market outlook......Page 675
Chapter 7 - Renewable energy outlook......Page 676
Chapter 8 - Climate change mitigation and the 450 Scenario......Page 677
Chapter 9 - Energy efficiency: the current state of play......Page 678
Chapter 11 - Unlocking energy efficiency at the sectoral level......Page 680
Chapter 13 - Iraq today: energy and the economy......Page 682
Chapter 15 - Iraq: fuelling future reconstruction and growth......Page 683
Chapter 17 - Water for energy......Page 684
Chapter 18 - Energy for all......Page 686